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A Chip Off the Old Dictator

Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to go quietly from Lebanon.

Apr 11, 2005, Vol. 10, No. 28 • By LEE SMITH
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THE CEDAR REVOLUTION HAS TAKEN so many interesting narrative turns, it is easy to forget that the Lebanese opposition confronts a criminal regime in Syria that is more isolated than ever and for that reason quite possibly more dangerous than before. While some repentant skeptics have grudgingly begun to credit the Bush vision for democracy in the Middle East, the White House has prudently refrained from gloating because the outcome is far from resolved. For all the appeasing noises the Damascus regime has made, it may decide not to leave Lebanon without a fight. Some analysts believe that Bashar al-Assad cannot leave Lebanon lest his government fall, and others fear that he will depart only after he has set Lebanon aflame.

While Syria's foreign minister announced last week that the country's armed forces will be pulled out before Lebanon's May parliamentary elections, the pro-Syrian government in Beirut has initiated stalling tactics that could postpone the elections and consequently the Syrian withdrawal. The Syrian-controlled security apparatus appears to be in a state of disarray, but even when, or if, the Assad regime evacuates, it will continue to exercise considerable influence over Lebanese politics and the economy through the myriad intelligence services that have penetrated virtually every Lebanese institution over the last 15 years. Thus, even if Syria withdraws, Assad will continue to be a major force in Lebanese affairs.

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