WITH TOM DELAY ON THE sidelines, things will be different on Capitol Hill, especially for President Bush. The White House will no longer command an automatic majority in the House of Representatives--that is, the votes of nearly all 231 Republicans--on any bill the president endorses. In the shuffle that saw DeLay replaced as majority leader by Roy Blunt, Bush came out a loser.
This is counterintuitive because the Missouri Republican has a warmer relationship with the White House, particularly with deputy chief of staff Karl Rove, than DeLay ever did. Blunt's close ties with the president go back to 1999, when he was a member of Bush's presidential exploratory committee. DeLay's relationship with Bush has been less friendly, even distant at times, though both are Texas conservatives. But despite the White House's lack of appreciation for DeLay, he has been Bush's most important ally in Congress for the past five years.
DeLay's absence means the House will probably not vote this fall on the president's plan for Social Security reform--or even take it up. Bush wants the House to consider his plan, and DeLay had intended to put it on the schedule. But Blunt isn't likely to. On Katrina recovery, spending cuts, and immigration reform, DeLay would probably have pursued Bush's wishes. Blunt is more inclined to champion the preference of House Republicans on these issues. And they disagree sharply with the White House.
As you might expect, DeLay and Blunt have contrasting views of the role of majority leader. DeLay is a risk-taker
who, like Bush, prefers a long-term approach. He believes the House should vote on issues that may not reach final enactment for years, if ever. Social Security reform is one example. DeLay's strategy is to use House approval to stir public approval and to prod the less conservative Senate to act.
Blunt is more cautious. For now anyway, his top priority is to protect House Republicans against losing their seats in next year's midterm election, which looks to be a perilous one for Republicans. He doesn't want to require a vote on Social Security reform when there's no chance the Senate will bring it up, much less pass it. In Blunt's view, House Republicans would be "left out to dry" on an issue that could harm their prospects for reelection.
On spending cuts to offset Katrina relief, DeLay's initial impulse was to say those couldn't be achieved. This was in line with White House thinking. But with both conservative and moderate Republicans in the House demanding offsets, Blunt won't stand in their way. "We're not talking about whether to cut spending," says Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, "but how much."
A Republican plan favored by conservatives and moderates alike would appropriate $50 billion on top of the $62 billion that's already been approved for Katrina relief. The $50 billion would be nearly offset by cuts already advocated by the White House, plus a 2 percent across-the-board spending reduction in nonmilitary federal programs. Blunt has privately spoken favorably of this plan. This would preclude a separate anti-poverty program in the Gulf region the White House is currently considering.
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