Well, Can't Cantwell Be Beat?

Seattle

REPUBLICANS HAVEN'T WON a statewide election in Washington state for a top-tier office (president, Senate, governor) since 1994. President Bush lost the state by five percentage points in 2000, seven in 2004. Over the past 75 years, Republicans have won Senate races in Washington only five times. And three of those victories were achieved by a single person, Slade Gorton, who was defeated for reelection in 2000. "This is a miserable state" for Republicans, Gorton says. And 2006 "isn't a good year."

It gets worse. Washington has none of the attributes of a red state. Traditional values are not a primary concern. Political correctness is. Washington is the most secular state in the country, as measured by regular church attendance. So the political network of evangelical Christians here is relatively small. And it is well-off, a problem because upper middle class voters here tend to be liberal. In 2004, John Kerry beat President Bush among Washington voters with more than $100,000 in income. Last, a statewide candidate had better care about the environment. "Everybody here is an environmentalist," says Chris Vance, who recently stepped down as Republican state chairman.

Yet despite these obstacles, Republicans have a realistic chance of capturing the Senate seat now held by Democrat Maria Cantwell, 47, who ousted Gorton six years ago. The reason is the Republican candidate, Mike McGavick, a former insurance executive and titan of the Seattle business and civic community. To be successful in Washington, Vance says, a Republican candidate must be "conservative enough to unite the base, moderate enough to win." And McGavick, 48, "fits perfectly." The McGavick election strategy, says his campaign manager, Ian Goodnow, is simple: "It's him."