Minneapolis
MINNESOTA IS AT THE CENTER of a political superstate I call "Minnewisowa"(Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa), which could be a vital battleground for the presidential elections of 2008, as it was in 2004. Minnewisowa has 27 electoral votes (more than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, or Michigan), and its component states not only vote similarly, but, since 2000, are also among the most competitive "swing" states in the nation.

In this year's midterm elections, all three states have competitive contests for governor. The GOP could pick up the executive posts in Wisconsin and Iowa, with two sitting congressmen as candidates--Mark Green (if he wins the Wisconsin GOP nomination) and Jim Nussle in Iowa. That's the good news for Republicans. The bad news is that both these House seats, now vacated, could be won by Democrats.

The incumbent Republican governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, is favored to win reelection in a three-way contest that will feature a candidate from the state's Independence party (which previously fielded Jesse Ventura). While it remains to be seen if this candidate can win anything like the 37 percent Ventura achieved, his presence will make it difficult for any Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate to win.

The major battle in Minnesota and the region will be for the Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton. Congressman Mark Kennedy successfully warded off an intraparty fight for the GOP nomination, and this seat is probably the best opportunity for a GOP pick-up in 2006.

Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney Amy Klobuchar had originally planned to run as the DFL candidate for state attorney general, but when Dayton unexpectedly decided to retire after one term, she entered the Senate race. Patty Wetterling, who became well-known in the state for her efforts on behalf of children following the kidnapping of her son, and who ran a strong race for Congress against Kennedy in 2004, was Klobuchar's main opponent until she abruptly withdrew to run again for the 6th District congressional seat. Ford Bell, a liberal philanthropist with his own financial resources, but politically unknown, also entered. Almost by default, Klobuchar thus became the almost-certain DFL nominee, and a costly primary was avoided. Bell remains in the race, but polls show him far behind Klobuchar.

Klobuchar does have problems. Although she has raised substantial funds, she is not well-known outside the state's largest city. With crime rising rapidly in Minneapolis, the GOP is trying to make her record as county attorney an issue. Recent high profile crimes in the city's upscale neighborhoods could put her on the defensive. A moderate liberal, Klobuchar is being pulled to the left by her party base (as is happening throughout the country this year).

Kennedy is an authentic conservative who has represented one of the state's most conservative districts. But to succeed in statewide Minnesota politics, a candidate has to appeal to the state's large political center. Freshman Senator Norm Coleman has apparently done this, helped by a charismatic political personality. The late Senator Paul Wellstone was much more liberal than most voters in the state, but his personal qualities enabled him to be reelected. Former Senator Rod Grams, who served during some of the same time as Wellstone, was as conservative as Wellstone was liberal, but he made few gestures to the political center and was defeated after only one term.