Will Casey Strike Out?

Pittsburgh

THIS YEAR, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is host to perhaps the most expensive, combative, and rigorously contested U.S. Senate race. Seeking a third term, Republican senator Rick Santorum faces a strong challenge from state treasurer Bob Casey Jr., who sports a political brand name--his father was a popular two-term governor, as well as a state auditor general.

Casey, like his father, holds unconventional positions--for a Demo crat--on gun control (he's against it) and abortion (he says he's against it, too). At the moment, Casey's ahead: The most recent Quinnipiac survey has Casey ahead by 18 points, and a recent "Strategic Vision" poll gives Casey a 10-point lead.

The fact is, though, that Bob Casey Jr.'s potential weaknesses--and Santorum's political strengths--make this race far from over.

Casey's been here before. In 2002, eight weeks before the Democratic gubernatorial primary, he had a 26-point lead over current governor Ed Rendell. But, as soon as Casey had to stake out ideological ground and say where he stood on the issues, that lead evaporated. A similar dynamic can be seen in this year's Senate race. So far, Casey has been afraid to take stands. On national affairs, says Dan Ronayne, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Commmittee, "When Casey does speak to issues, it is in platitudes based off Democrat talking points." As Ronayne tells it, while Casey has said he opposes introducing personal savings accounts into Social Security, he hasn't yet said how he would handle the coming entitlement crisis. And on tax cuts, Ronayne goes on, Casey "says he would vote to repeal the [Bush cuts] for the top one percent, but would he have voted against the bills as presented to the senators in 2001 and 2003?" (The Casey campaign did not respond to requests for comment.)