Fred Barnes, executive editor

SECRETARY OF STATE Colin Powell hardly had to make the case that Iraq is aggressively thwarting United Nations arms inspectors. The evidence is so overwhelming that even the French concede this point. More important was the compelling case Powell made about the weapons of mass destruction which Iraq today possesses or is developing. And just as important was the solid evidence Powell outlined of a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda. Countries that dismiss or downgrade or minimize the substance of Powell's case on either WMDs or the terrorist link are now on far weaker ground and would simply rather appease Saddam Hussein and throw a monkey wrench in President Bush's effort to achieve regime change in Iraq.

Three countries, to one degree or another, fell into this category immediately after Powell's speech to the U.N. Security Council: France, China, and Russia. But the responses by China and Russia were pro forma, no doubt drafted before Powell spoke. Both said inspections must continue in Iraq. Their real response will come later, and Russia, at least, is expected to join the United States against Iraq. China? Who knows? France is another story.

The French changed their tone, becoming slightly less hostile to the U.S. contention that Iraq is more than ever in material breach of U.N. resolutions requiring disarmament. But there are two ways the French could go. One is to accede gradually and grudgingly to the U.S. position after a few more weeks of fruitless inspections. The other the proposal, by Dominique de

This second, and probably more likely option, is characteristically cynical of France. The French, after all, painstakingly negotiated U.N. Resolution 1441, which sent inspectors back to Iraq last November with the job of verifying Iraq's disarmament. Now inspectors would be taking on a completely different role, not certifying disarmament but preventing the Iraqis from using the WMDs the French--like everyone else--now knows they have. However, this could be merely a temporary position for the French, who may conclude that they have to go along with Bush in the end, or risk being isolated in Europe and in Bush's doghouse for years to come.

WHAT GAVE POWELL'S PRESENTATION such power was not entirely what he said, since much of it was already known. It was that Powell, a revered figure around the world, was saying it. Powell had persuaded the president to go to the United Nations in the first place. And he is regarded as the chief dove in a Bush administration dominated by hawks such as Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. In his speech, he was every bit as hawkish as Cheney or Rumsfeld--or his boss, the president. In a period of weeks, Powell has moved a long way from his earlier position of seeking to avert war. (This is the guy, remember, who as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff opposed going to war against Iraq in 1990 after Saddam invaded Kuwait.)