Paris
FRANCE'S FOREIGN MINISTER Dominique de Villepin made a visit last week to London's International Institute for Strategic Studies--he saw no members of the Blair cabinet--and refused to answer the question: "Who do you want to win the war?" (The French government later issued a clarification, saying that de Villepin was already on record as wishing victory for the U.S.-led coalition.) Meanwhile, the latest edition of Le Canard Encha né, France's weekly paper of humor and political gossip, claims French president Jacques Chirac told a meeting of his counselors on Monday, March 24: "If the Americans announce that they have discovered such arms [i.e. weapons of mass destruction], they should offer evidence that the arms are really of Iraqi origin." Such incidents show how tough Chirac is willing to be--and how big a price he is willing to pay--to press France's case against the U.S. war in Iraq. What's in it for him? What's in it for his country?

When it comes to politics, notes Jean-Michel Helvig, the editorial page editor of the daily Libération, "you can never totally rule out sincerity." Chirac's views are much like those of 87 percent of his countrymen--of every political persuasion. Most Frenchmen believe the war against terrorism has been going perfectly fine until now, Helvig says. The proof is that, since September 11, al Qaeda has failed to strike against the heart of the West, hitting only its periphery--in Bali, Jordan, and Tunisia, for instance. A longtime right-wing adviser to Chirac agrees. "The president is a creature of instinct," he says. "A great deal in the American account of the Iraq situation sounded false to him." Even Claude Angéli of Le Canard Encha né, who co-authored a book about France's (and Chirac's) relations with Saddam, is unconvinced of the need to invade. "No one [in France] understands this war," he says. "If people are marching in the streets defending Saddam Hussein en connaissance de cause, you can tell the American case is weak."

But one can never rule out politics, either. Chirac's stance against the United States has offered him powerful insulation against domestic problems that were gathering when the Bush administration brought the issue of Saddam Hussein to a head. In February, France's unemployment rate rose by 0.8 percent--the third consecutive monthly leap. It now stands at 9.2 percent. Chirac had come to power last year promising (in a page stolen from the 2000 campaign of George W. Bush) a 30-percent tax reduction over the next five years. After splashily doling out 5 percent of it last year, his government now finds itself out of money. Chirac and his prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin are required under the European Union's "stability pact" to keep their budget deficit under 3 percent, and this year they're not even going to come close. So they plan to ask the European Commission to exempt France from the stability pact for this year, citing "exceptional circumstances"--namely, the war in Iraq. (No such exemptions were sought by the countries actually involved in the war.)