THE RECALL defies both tradition and traditional math.

Recent history shows that Republicans can't win statewide races in California. But thanks to recall, they have a shot on October 7. Every poll shows the GOP with the most support on the second half of the recall, yet the front-runner is a Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. That's because the Republican majority-plurality is divided among three candidates and a fourth fellow who dropped out over the weekend.

And the man who may hold the key to the election? For now, it's the candidate in third place: state senator Tom McClintock, the recall's conservative alternative.

McClintock is about as unlikely a "darling" as you'll find in California politics. He's not telegenic--he is seemingly incapable of cracking a smile on television, or even batting an eyelash for that matter. Nor is he well liked within the upper echelons of his party. Last fall, McClintock ran for state controller. Though he was the lone Republican and in a position to win his race, the California Republican party instead gave more than $1 million to Gary Mendoza, the GOP candidate for insurance commissioner, and nearly $350,000 to Republican state senator Bruce McPherson, who was running for lieutenant governor. McPherson lost by 550,000 votes; Mendoza, by 350,000 votes. McClintock fell a mere 17,000 votes short of victory.

Now, nearly 10 months after that election, McClintock has turned the tables on the Republican establishment. He doesn't have enough support to lead the recall field--take McClintock's best showing (12 percent, according to the Los Angeles Times), add half-to-two-thirds of the support from the now-departed Bill Simon, and at best McClintock runs at 15-20 percent. That's not enough to win, but it could condemn Arnold Schwarzenegger to a second-place finish and hand the race to Bustamante.

McClintock's appeal is that he's a conservative non-Arnold. Just listen to the voiceover on his newly released TV ad: "We must have a governor who knows every inch of this state government, and who stands willing to challenge the spending lobby that controls it." That's as much as shot at Schwarzenegger's credentials as it is at Democrats' lack of thrift. McClintock's ad also says: "California used to be the Golden State. Taxes were low. Jobs were plentiful. Tom McClintock was there." That's an appeal to older conservatives who voted for Proposition 13 back in 1978 and probably know little about Arnold's movies.

Indeed, much of the McClintock strategy is based on the premise that voters will choose a feisty legislator instead of a conciliatory actor/activist. If elected, McClintock has promised to slash bureaucracy, place a cap on state spending and outsource government services. He's promised to balance the state budget through executive fiat and ballot initiative, if need be. Them is fighting' words, in Sacramento.

Indeed, McClintock's record shows that he's anything but a go-along, get-along politician. As Dan Weintraub has pointed out in his always-informative California Insider blog, McClintock was one of only a handful of legislators who voted against higher retirement benefits for state employees and higher local government pensions, back in Gray Davis's first year in office. McClintock also was a "no" vote when the legislature handed state prison guards a 35-percent raise (Davis then received a whopping campaign contribution from the guards). The pension bill now costs California taxpayers more than $500 million a year and you can tack on another $600 million in annual debt for the sop to prison guards. Weintraub writes: "Both bills became law and today stand as monuments to the worst excesses of the Legislature and Gov. Gray Davis. They also could be exhibits A and B in McClintock's campaign . . . vivid examples of how things would be different if he won on Oct. 7."