Irwin M. Stelzer, contributing writer

SOME THINGS were unchanged yesterday as, since 1894, we celebrated the holiday called Labor Day. Millions of hot dogs were grilled, and Democrats took to their soap boxes to proclaim their loyalty to the trade unions that provide the financial and logistical muscle on which they depend.

But the nature of the day off with families has changed a bit. Labor Day has become a holiday on which Americans relax with their families and their cell phones, Blackberries, PDAs, and other devices that allow them to be in touch with their offices 24/7. Today we return to work, and not reluctantly--polls show that the vast majority of workers are satisfied with their jobs.

Karlyn Bowman, Washington's preeminent poll analyst, says that two surveys taken twenty years apart find no change in the proportion (65 percent) who would "take the same job without hesitation."

Although only 15 percent of workers say they are dissatisfied with their own job security, 55 percent tell Harris pollsters that the country is still in a recession, 50 percent say they know someone who has lost a job recently, and 80 percent say that this is a bad time to find a quality job. Yet consumers' confidence in the future is on the rise and CEOs in the retail and other sectors are also increasingly optimistic.

ALL OF WHICH is more than a little confusing to the political analysts who are trying to form an early view of president Bush's prospects for re-election. For the first time, some polls are showing that more people think he should be denied a second term (49 percent) than favor his return to the White House when his current term expires (44 percent), a result distorted by the failure of the pollsters to name one of the several unpopular Democrats likely to oppose the president. Although Bush's 36 percent disapproval rating is his highest since September 11, 2001, 53 percent approve of the way the president is handling his job.

White House analysts know that "it's the economy, stupid" is still a valid summary of the political situation. Bowman notes that "When asked what will be most important in determining your vote for president, 48 percent said the economy, 23 percent the course of the war on terror, and 24 percent said they rate both issues equally." So Bush's reelection team is trumpeting the fact that the economy is now growing at an annual rate of close to 5 percent, thanks, they say, to the president's wisdom in cutting taxes to forestall a major downturn. The increase in defense spending and the Fed's loose monetary policy are receiving less mention from all the president's men.

But that may not ensure that Bush will waltz into the White House for another term. For one thing, an amazing spurt in productivity is enabling most firms to increase their output without taking on staff. Economists say that applications for unemployment insurance have slowed sufficiently (now under 400,000 per week) to lead them to expect a downturn in the unemployment rate, though they won't say when that turnaround will occur.