ELECTIONS, like warfare, come down to turning points. And should Governor Gray Davis go down in flames a week from tomorrow, remember last Friday as the pivotal moment in California's recall election. The event was a West Hollywood rally for women voters. His guest of honor was former Texas governor Ann Richards (talk about the B-list), plus a phone call from Hillary Rodham Clinton, who tried to pump up the estrogen by predicting "California is not going to be stampeded by the same right-wingers who gave us the election in Florida and are trying to do things that are really against our interests."

Unfortunately for Davis, he chose that moment to have his own hormonal surge, daring Arnold Schwarzenegger to go one-on-one. "I'm not going to take it anymore," Davis said, alleging the Arnold is distorting his record. "Right here, right now, I challenge him to a debate."

Davis's challenge was deliciously hypocritical. Last fall, he refused to debate Republican challenger Bill Simon a second time; in the 1998 governor's race, he backed out of a fifth and final debate with Dan Lungren. And hypocrisy aside, Schwarzenegger would probably win a one-on-one encounter as Davis would find it hard to resist being condescending or creepy. Remember, this is the same governor who's ridiculed Ah-nold's accent and has suggested that Republicans would sooner shoot their mothers than pass a tax hike. Alone, in a debate forum with Schwarzenegger, Davis is bound to have at least one political Tourette's moment.

But what distinguishes last Friday's event is how quickly it changed media perception--to the governor's detriment. Before challenging Arnold to a debate, Davis had spun most beat reporters into believing that he was closing the gap on recall's first question, and that Republicans were too badly divided to win the second half of the ballot. But once he called out Arnold, conventional wisdom was tossed out the window. In the closing days of a campaign, issuing a debate challenge is an act of weakness--a very public sign that a candidate doesn't have momentum.

Indeed, over the week, poll after poll underscored Davis's enfeebled standing:

*Yesterday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Davis losing recall a whopping 63 percent to 35 percent. On the second question, Schwarzenegger led the field with 40 percent, followed by Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante at 25 percent and Republican State Senator Tom McClintock at 18 percent.

*A survey released Friday by the California Chamber of Commerce also has Davis behind, this time a more manageable 53 percent to 41 percent. On the second half of the ballot: 35 percent for Arnold, 31 percent for Bustamante, 17 percent for McClintock.

*Then there are the internal polls, which the public never gets to see. Yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle reported "overnight tracking numbers from both the Democratic and GOP camps" showing yes-on-recall holding between 52 percent and 54 percent, while the no vote caps out at 44 percent. The Sacramento Bee's Dan Weintraub reports that the California Teachers Association has private polls showing the no vote even lower, around 41 or 40 percent.