REALIGNING ELECTIONS don't occur in odd-numbered years like 2003. Nor do such elections provide foolproof signs of what's coming the next year--in this case, in the 2004 presidential and congressional races. But Republican victories in the governors' races in Mississippi and Kentucky were significant. They reinforced the current political realignment that favors Republicans. The draw in the Virginia legislative elections also buttressed the realignment. And newly assembled polling data further substantiate a major Republican trend.

Though not predictive, last week's results were more encouraging for President Bush than not. Democrats sought to make his economic policy the overriding issue in Kentucky. That tack failed. In Mississippi, Democrats didn't directly target Bush, but they criticized Republican Haley Barbour as a Washington lobbyist out of sync with local concerns. Barbour embraced the label and said he could get more out of Republican-controlled Washington than Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove. Democrats zeroed in on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for causing jobs to leave Mississippi. Democratic presidential candidates and congressmen, too, have been castigating NAFTA. But the anti-NAFTA theme fizzled in Mississippi against Barbour, who, like Bush, supports the trade agreement.

It may be small potatoes, but voter turnout was linked to Bush's campaign stops. In the counties of Kentucky and Mississippi where Bush made appearances, turnout rose dramatically and the Republican candidate for governor benefited. Statewide turnout in Kentucky was up 50 percent over the last governor's race in 1999 and up 15 percent in Mississippi. In one Kentucky county where Bush spoke, turnout

Democrats tried to downplay the losses. Governor Gary Locke of Washington, speaking for the Democratic National Committee, dismissed the defeats as routine for "Republican states." Sure, Bush won Kentucky in 2000, but perhaps Locke forgot that Bill Clinton captured the state in 1992 and 1996 without much trouble. And it's a state that until last week hadn't elected a Republican governor in 32 years. Now it has one, Fletcher. But Democrats control the lower house of the state legislature (65 to 35) and have a 14 percentage-point advantage in voter registration. That's a Republican state? Not quite, but it is a state that's realigning in a Republican direction. Democrats, by the way, hold both houses in the Mississippi legislature and Barbour is only the second Republican governor since the 19th century.

One test of realignment is how a party fares in down-ticket statewide races, those below the governor's level. These races measure whether a party is sinking deep political roots. Until last week, not one Republican had been elected to statewide office in Kentucky, below the governorship, in modern times. Now Kentucky has Republicans in the offices of lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and agriculture commissioner (the aptly named Richie Farmer). In Mississippi, no Republican had ever won a down-ticket office without first being elected as a Democrat and then switching parties. This is true of Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, reelected as a Republican though initially elected as a Democrat. Last week, however, Tate Reeves was elected state treasurer as a Republican.