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Trade Talk
Members of the G7 head to Florida to whisper sweet nothings to one another.
by Irwin M. Stelzer
02/03/2004 12:00:00 AM

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A FEW DAYS from now the finance ministers of the world's richest, industrialized countries will gather in Orlando, Florida, for still another meeting of the G7. What better place to escape the wintry weather that is making life miserable in many of their countries than the warm climate of Florida, and what better place to escape reality than nearby Disney World.

Ministers from Europe will tell America that their exports to the United States are down some 10 percent, and that the Bush administration must do something to stem the decline of the dollar that is steadily pushing the euro to heights that threaten even the tiny bit of growth Germany, France, and others are expecting. America won't.

Americans will join with the Europeans to tell the Japanese to stop intervening in currency markets to prevent the yen from rising against the dollar, keeping Japan's goods competitive in America, but putting all of the cost of adjusting to the dollar's fall on Europe. Japan won't.

The Americans will tell the Europeans to loosen the regulations that are preventing their labor markets from being sufficiently flexible to allow incomes and domestic demand to rise, so that more made-in-the-USA products and services can be sold in Europe. The Europeans won't.

All will agree that a communiqué extolling the wide agreements that have been reached is just what the world's markets need, and such a document, drafted long before the meeting convened, will be issued at the photo op that ends these meetings.

MEANWHILE, skirmishes on the trade
front increase in number and intensity. Brazil has gone to the World Trade Organization's international dispute settlements panel in Geneva to challenge America's policy of subsidizing its cotton farmers' exports to the tune of $1.54 billion a year. The Brazilians, leaders of a newly energized group of some 20 developing countries, are determined to bring down the system of agricultural subsidies that the European Union and the United States use to make it almost impossible for farmers in poorer countries to compete in world markets.

The European Union is not to be left behind in bringing pressure on America. It is launching a complaint against the way American agencies calculate antidumping duties, and seeking sanctions against U.S. exporters. Brussels also plans to impose sanctions totaling $200 million per year on U.S. goods to force compliance with a WTO ruling that tax breaks for American exporters constitute an illegal subsidy and should be abandoned.

IN AMERICA, protectionist measures mount as the presidential election nears, despite the fact that arch-protectionist Richard Gephardt has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination. Some legislators want to ban outsourcing of work on federal and state contracts, and have pushed a bill that would do just that through the Congress and onto the president's desk. Others want to place a punitive tariff on imports from China, to offset what they claim is China's unfair practice of pegging its currency to the dollar so as to maintain the competitive advantage Chinese goods enjoy in America. Bush has given a bit of ground, probably in the hope of defusing protectionist pressures, by creating a Commerce Department task force to investigate unfair trade practices that may be hurting America's manufacturers ability to penetrate overseas markets.



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