ALL INDICATIONS point to a close presidential election in 2004, and in such a tight battle every vote and dollar will matter. While the Democrats won 80 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000, 2004 may prove to be a far different story and the Jewish vote may determine the fate of the presidency and congress. While Jews make up only 3 percent of the United States population, Jewish political influence is far greater than that due to their outsized campaign donations, media involvement and electoral presence.

Historically, Jewish voters' primary political concern has been social justice, which has been the key driver of their political affiliations. From the 1850's to the early 20th century, Republicans garnered the majority of the Jewish vote due in no small part to the GOP's role in abolition. Franklin Roosevelt sharply reversed that trend for the Democrats, who ever since have been perceived by Jewish voters as the champions of social justice.

But while social justice is important, today policy towards Israel looms large in the minds of Jewish voters. Ever since the generous Camp David II offer was made--and responded to by the Palestinians with a campaign of unique savagery--Israel has become to many American Jews the most prominent issue in their electoral decisions.

IN 2000, THE JEWISH COMMUNITY viewed George W. Bush with more than a small amount of wariness as he entered office. His father was not considered a friend of Israel and many thought the younger Bush would continue his father's

How? For starters, Bush moved his administration decisively away from the Clinton doctrine of moral equivalency. His June 24, 2002 speech, in which he placed the blame for the current round of Middle East violence squarely on the shoulders of the Palestinian leadership, was a watershed policy statement. Bush has allowed Israel to take measures in self defense and has taken bold steps to reshape the Middle East towards the goal of democratizing the region. He has also surrounded himself with senior policy advisors who share his desire to support the Jewish state.

In fact, support for Israel in the Republican party goes deeper than the presidency--so much so that it is now an almost institutional belief within the party. (Ironically, this support can be accounted for in no small part due to evangelical Christians, who have an almost zealous support for Israel.) This fact has not been lost on the Jewish community. Polling data has shown a consistent rise in Jewish support for the president and Republicans generally.

THE JEWISH FACTOR in 2004 should not be underestimated; there are a number of key states with significant Jewish populations, any of those states might determine the election. In 2000, Bush lost Pennsylvania by five percentage points. While the Jewish population is only 2.5 percent of the state, they make up 5 percent of the electorate. If Bush could match Reagan's capture of 40 percent of the Jewish vote, it would put that state into a statistical dead heat. Jews make up another 5 percent of the electorate in Florida, where hundreds of votes decided the outcome last time.