IS THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE John Kerry's to lose? After a successful Democratic convention and an adequate but uninspiring acceptance speech, Kerry would never say so publicly. But that's what he and his advisers believe. Their theory is that the country has fundamentally made up its mind that President Bush shouldn't have a second term. After all, his reelect number--the share of the electorate that thinks he deserves another four years--is only 43 percent. So Bush would need almost all of the undecided vote to tilt his way, but normally they wind up voting two-to-one for the challenger. That's Kerry. Besides, political analyst Charlie Cook has studied the undecided and found them to be overwhelmingly anti-Bush. All Kerry has to do is make himself minimally acceptable.
It won't be that simple. This is a peculiar election, and for that reason alone victory is hardly in Kerry's grasp already. He must fight off an unconventional Bush campaign. Bush long ago realized he couldn't run a stay-the-course reelection campaign, standard for successful incumbents from Richard Nixon in 1972 to Ronald Reagan in 1984 to Bill Clinton in 1996. To win a second term, they relied on the accomplishments of their first term plus their popularity. That won't work for Bush. Why? Because the electorate has changed, and Bush is too controversial.
"This will be more like 1884 than 1984," says a senior adviser in the Bush campaign. Like today, the nation was evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans in 1884, and there wasn't an abundance
of swing voters or ticket splitters. Bush strategists figure that swing voters, once 20 percent of the electorate, are roughly half that now. Ticket-splitters have also dipped, from 17 percent in 1988 to 7 to 10 percent now. (There's overlap with the two voting blocs.) And the final outcome of the president's boldest initiative, the war in Iraq, is uncertain.
So Bush now embarks on a contrast campaign in which he'll use every tool at his disposal--TV ads, his own statements, campaign events, speeches by leading Republicans--to compare himself favorably with Kerry. He'll also "pivot" into emphasizing his agenda for a second term. He touched on this in a July 21 speech: "During the next four years, we'll help more citizens to own their health plan, to own a piece of their retirement, to own their own home or their own small business. We'll usher in a new era of ownership in America." Bush will spell out more details in the weeks before the Republican convention, saving the "big nuggets" for his acceptance speech. The convention begins August 30.
As you'd expect, the president's advisers insist his vision for a second term will overshadow Kerry's themes. "Kerry has no vision, no plan," one says. But the contrast that's bound to attract more attention is on national security. The Kerry campaign stressed his supposed strength on this issue--and especially on the war against terror--throughout the convention. The dominant idea was that Kerry's record of bravery as a young naval lieutenant in Vietnam shows he'd be a strong president today. That's a dubious proposition--a non sequitur really--but neither Kerry nor any other Democrat was embarrassed about pushing it. "I defended this country as a young man and I will defend it as president," Kerry said in his acceptance speech. John Edwards, Kerry's vice presidential running mate, was even more explicit about the Vietnam connection. Kerry was decisive and strong in Vietnam, Edwards said. "Aren't these the traits you want in a commander in chief?"
|
