Worse Than It Looks
The political landscape is not the same as it was in 2000. For Democrats, their situation is getting worse.
These changes qualify the interpretation that Bush increased his popular vote percentage simply by turning out evangelical voters in the Red states. The construction of the national Republican majority drew on broader sources of support. The Left Coalition was losing strength across the board, above all in Blue states, including Rhode Island or Massachusetts, where Republicans took out few TV ads and where there were no mega-church rallies. The Left Coalition is facing erosion of its percentage of the vote in its own territory, while Republicans are expanding their lead in states they already control and increasing their share in states they do not. These results hardly resemble the 2000 election.
James W. Ceaser is a Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia. Daniel DiSalvo is a graduate student in Politics at the University of Virginia.