WITH THE REFERENDUM DATE in France of May 29 fast approaching, Jacques Chirac, one of the most ardent supporters of the proposed European Union constitution, is finding Europe's grand project on the ropes. Eleven straight polls have found that the French would reject the proposed constitution if the referendum were held today. And despite a media blitz campaign--including television appearances and free booklets--which attempts to explain the now 800-plus page document, it is not at all clear to citizens why France (and the rest of Europe) will be better off with the constitution. At the same time a combination of skepticism, apathy, and political rivalry among France's political elites is threatening to derail the project, while the constitution's defenders airily dismiss any criticism as simple "Europhobia."

An unlikely alliance of opponents of economic liberalization on the left and conservative French nationalists and populists is the main motor behind the drive to oppose the referendum campaign, which is widely perceived as a project of the political elite divorced from the interests of what the constitution is supposed to promote--the citizens of France. And since the vast majority of French citizens hardly have a clue about what the constitution actually says, it is increasingly becoming the scapegoat for everything from the question of Turkey's bid to join the European Union to problems of rising unemployment.

A rejection of the constitution is also being seen as a fine opportunity to punish the government, which has been plagued by corruption and scandal in recent months. It could

Many Frenchmen wonder what the point is of supporting the constitution, which would replace the laundry list of treaties which has regulated relations between European states for the past half century. One possible explanation is Chirac's argument for the necessity of political enlargement and consolidation in Europe. While he has distanced himself in recent months from talk of a "multi-polar world" to balance the U.S., that's still precisely how he sees matters. As an editorial in L'Express recently put it, "It is time to say to the French people that Europe cannot take 15 years or more [to approve the constitution] faced with the American power and the rise of China."

Perhaps the most interesting subtext of the debate is the issue of Turkey's entrance into the European Union, which is seen as a wedge between the pro-Europe elite and the public, the majority of whom are opposed to it. On this subject, Chirac seems to have lost touch with most of his constituents--he's gone out of his way to promote Turkish entry, even suggesting that one day Islam will be as much a part of Europe's roots as Christianity once was. And although he has promised a separate referendum for the question of Turkey when it comes up in 10 to 15 years (at which time France's Muslim population will be 30 percent to 40 percent), he has also subtly played down the fact that one key area over which the constitution would have supranational jurisdiction is immigration policy.