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After the Barbecue
Where does the economy go from here?
by Irwin M. Stelzer
07/05/2005 12:00:00 AM

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AMERICANS RETURN TO WORK TODAY after a bittersweet weekend. Yesterday we celebrated our Declaration of Independence from Britain with fireworks, parades, unfurled flags, and the consumption of 150 million hotdogs, a statistic that warms the hearts at the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council, but probably curls the hair of the health police.

But we also worried about mounting casualties in the war in Iraq, and were disturbed by recollections of internet and television images of beheadings and random explosions triggered by young suicide bombers who prefer death to life in the emerging Iraqi democracy. Polls show that about half of the country is wondering if it was worth carrying the war on terror to Iraq.

So President Bush, in a televised address to the nation to lay out the progress being made in Iraq, last week urged all Americans to do something to show our troops that the country is behind them--send a parcel or an email, or make a phone call. Millions did as the president asked, and most, including the 51 percent who are telling pollsters we should have stayed out of Iraq, agree that there is no alternative to staying the course.

Any unhappiness about America's overseas ventures, and about high gasoline prices, did not stop us from celebrating the holiday in traditional fashion. By Monday night over 40 million Americans had traveled 50 miles or more to visit friends and family, or to reach the beach or mountains. Of those, 34 million hopped into their cars and SUVs, soaring
gasoline prices notwithstanding. Prices have risen 12 cents per gallon since the end of May, to a national average of $2.22, and shortages of refining capacity make it likely that gasoline prices will stay high even if crude oil prices ease.

The surprising thing is that $60 crude oil has not slowed the economy--at least, not yet. But the day of reckoning may be upon us. Experts estimate that this year's increase in oil prices, from about $40 to $60 per barrel, has cost the economy some $75 billion. That's the equivalent of a new tax on consumers. Businesses, too, are hurting. Fed Ex says higher fuel costs are eating into profits; airlines are struggling despite an increase in travel; chemical and steel companies are burdened by higher prices for fuel; auto companies are watching sales of their large, most profitable vehicles, dwindle.

No surprise, then, that U.S. factory conditions are described by Goldman Sachs' economists as "soggy" because of the decline in orders for capital goods (other than civilian aircraft and military hardware). Or that Standard & Poor's index of 500 stocks has dropped about 2 percent this year.

But somehow the economy continues to grow. Figures released last week show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, and there is little reason to believe that it has slowed substantially in recent months. Sales of building materials and furniture are increasing sharply, in tandem with a booming market for homes. The jobs market may not be growing as rapidly as some of the president's critics claim they could make it grow, but the unemployment rate is a low 5.1 percent, and over the past year the number of jobs increased in 48 of 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, with Arnold Schwarzenegger's California and Jeb Bush's Florida leading the parade with job gains of 254,500 and 225,500.



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