BACK IN NOVEMBER 1999, I wrote a column for the San Francisco Examiner in which I basically guaranteed that Hillary Clinton would not run for the Senate in New York. I laid out a very clever rationale for why she would not enter the race, the main thrust being that her candidacy was really just a red herring devised to deflect attention from her husband's mounting ethical problems.

I was so sure of my pet theory that I proceeded to make lunch and dinner bets with any number of people in Washington. Bets that, to this day, I am still paying off.

So with that lesson well learned, I am here to say that Senator Hillary Clinton will not run for president in 2008. Guaranteed. Why? Because, from the Democratic party's point of view, it makes no sense for her to run. I'm talking, none.

I am a Republican who happens to have a lot of Democratic friends. That's the way it goes when you come from Dorchester, Massachusetts. And what most of these Democratic friends of mine tell me for private consumption is that their party is really, really, really desperate to win back the White House, and in their minds, for that to happen, Hillary Clinton has to get out of the way.

Their rationale, not mine, is that they don't think enough Americans, especially American women, are actually going to vote for Senator Clinton in a general election. While I'm no fan of polls, a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll would seem to

Next on the hit parade of things my Democratic friends worry about when it comes to Senator Clinton is that they really would like not to revisit the Whitewater, commodities, Monica, Lincoln Bedroom, Hillarycare days. Some of them worry, rightly in my opinion, that if Mrs. Clinton runs, all of this old, unpleasant, and somewhat unresolved baggage is going to be run on a loop by certain conservative, Christian, and even Democratic groups. The obvious question of these friends being: "Why should our party relive that pain?"

All Democrats I speak with on this subject, and even a surprisingly large number of Republicans, think 2008 is shaping up as a pretty good year for the Democrats to take back the White House. Part of their thinking is that even if you believe George W. Bush has been a great president (I do), and even if you really like the Republicans (I like some of them), the American people are suffering from "party in power fatigue." Namely, after eight years of Republicans in the White House, maybe it's time to send in the other team.

So, before the race even starts, one could build a case that the Democrats have a bit of a head start. Why aren't the Democrats I speak with happy about that news? Because they feel that if Hillary is the one carrying the baton in the general election, then she's going to collapse and get lapped by even a mediocre Republican.