WHAT ARE THE ODDS that President Bush will succeed in his full-blown campaign to recover from a second-term swoon? Not good, if you consider the records of second-term presidents over the past 70 years.

Start with Franklin Roosevelt. He saw a Republican resurgence in 1938, struggled to win reelection in 1940, and was rejuvenated only by World War II. Harry Truman never recovered after the scandals and the Korean War dragged down his presidency. Democrats staged a revival in Dwight Eisenhower's second term as he limped out of office. After enormous success in 1965, the remainder of the John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson presidency was a disaster. Watergate short-circuited Richard Nixon's second term, Iran-contra doomed Ronald Reagan's, and impeachment ruined Bill Clinton's.

Now Bush is vigorously trying to escape the fate of his predecessors. So, without any ballyhoo or even an announcement, he's mounted a four-front offensive. He's begun to overhaul his White House staff and his administration. He's inviting members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, to meetings at the White House like never before. He's inaugurated what an aide calls an "open door policy" that includes schmoozing the press and taking questions from the public. And he intends to change his emphasis on policies and initiatives. At least he'd better.

The president's goals are quite simple. He has at least three in mind: improve relations with Congress, strengthen ties to the Republican base of voters, and quash the Democratic talking point that he and his administration are incompetent. To achieve these, he has to improve his popularity as measured by his job approval rating, since the political community and the media are obsessed with this poll number.

Whether in a slump or not, Bush or any president has extraordinary power to change the subject in Washington and indeed around the country--that is, so long as he's willing to be bold, as Bush often is. Let's examine his effort to revive his political fortunes.

* Staff shakeup. The president has a problem with firing anyone. Unlike most presidents, he's loyal to his staff, especially those who've been with him for years. Thus, it was highly significant that he allowed Andy Card to fall on his sword during a bad spell for Bush and quit as White House chief of staff. Now the president has braced himself for the pain of more staff switches. He's given the new chief, Josh Bolten, carte blanche to make personnel changes.

They'd better be sweeping. If they are, Bush can create the aura and energy of a new presidency, one ready to overcome troubles and do big things again. The press, communications, congressional liaison, and economic policy offices at the White House may be overhauled. And should Bolten turn his attention to cabinet posts, particularly one or more of the Big Four (State, Defense, Justice, Treasury), he's likely to look first at Treasury Secretary John Snow. Snow's the only one who's not a longtime Bush ally. Rumsfeld has only known Bush since the start of the administration, but he now looks like a Bush lifer.