George W. Bush's To-Do List

WHAT ARE THE ODDS that President Bush will succeed in his full-blown campaign to recover from a second-term swoon? Not good, if you consider the records of second-term presidents over the past 70 years.

Start with Franklin Roosevelt. He saw a Republican resurgence in 1938, struggled to win reelection in 1940, and was rejuvenated only by World War II. Harry Truman never recovered after the scandals and the Korean War dragged down his presidency. Democrats staged a revival in Dwight Eisenhower's second term as he limped out of office. After enormous success in 1965, the remainder of the John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson presidency was a disaster. Watergate short-circuited Richard Nixon's second term, Iran-contra doomed Ronald Reagan's, and impeachment ruined Bill Clinton's.

Now Bush is vigorously trying to escape the fate of his predecessors. So, without any ballyhoo or even an announcement, he's mounted a four-front offensive. He's begun to overhaul his White House staff and his administration. He's inviting members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, to meetings at the White House like never before. He's inaugurated what an aide calls an "open door policy" that includes schmoozing the press and taking questions from the public. And he intends to change his emphasis on policies and initiatives. At least he'd better.

The president's goals are quite simple. He has at least three in mind: improve relations with Congress, strengthen ties to the Republican base of voters, and quash the Democratic talking point that he and his administration are incompetent. To achieve these, he has to improve his popularity as measured by his job approval rating, since the political community and the media are obsessed with this poll number.

Whether in a slump or not, Bush or any president has extraordinary power to change the subject in Washington and indeed around the country--that is, so long as he's willing to be bold, as Bush often is. Let's examine his effort to revive his political fortunes.

* Staff shakeup. The president has a problem with firing anyone. Unlike most presidents, he's loyal to his staff, especially those who've been with him for years. Thus, it was highly significant that he allowed Andy Card to fall on his sword during a bad spell for Bush and quit as White House chief of staff. Now the president has braced himself for the pain of more staff switches. He's given the new chief, Josh Bolten, carte blanche to make personnel changes.

They'd better be sweeping. If they are, Bush can create the aura and energy of a new presidency, one ready to overcome troubles and do big things again. The press, communications, congressional liaison, and economic policy offices at the White House may be overhauled. And should Bolten turn his attention to cabinet posts, particularly one or more of the Big Four (State, Defense, Justice, Treasury), he's likely to look first at Treasury Secretary John Snow. Snow's the only one who's not a longtime Bush ally. Rumsfeld has only known Bush since the start of the administration, but he now looks like a Bush lifer.

A spate of major firings and hirings would mesmerize the media. They'd have to cover it extensively. Of course, they'd stress the president was succumbing to the advice of critics. So what? The mere fact of widespread changes, not the press's needling, would dominate the news.

* Chats with Congress. The pace of presidential gatherings at the White House with Senate and House members has accelerated noticeably in recent weeks. Three bipartisan congressional groups that had visited Iraq were awarded private sessions with the president last week. The groups included sharp critics of Bush like Democratic senators Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Carl Levin of Michigan. Meanwhile, Senator Ted Kennedy was invited over to discuss Bush's competitiveness initiative.

More important, though, are the president's meetings with congressional Republicans, who used to constitute his base of support on Capitol Hill. Many of them have become alienated from the president. At one session last week, Bush spent most of the meeting listening to their advice and complaints. It was time well spent.

* Open door. Along with his meetings with members of Congress, the president's off-the-record chats with small groups of Washington reporters and his Q-and-A sessions following speeches destroy the image that he's insulated and out of touch. Bush actually surprised the press when he began taking questions following a speech in Cleveland two weeks ago. The first question, however, was based on a hostile book by political writer Kevin Phillips and sought Bush's take on whether the Iraq war and the rise of terrorism are "signs of the apocalypse." Bush replied, "I haven't really thought of it that way."