THIS IS A SPECIAL WEEKEND IN AMERICA. Because the Fourth of July holiday falls on Tuesday, most Americans stayed away from work yesterday, and treated themselves to a four-day weekend. That has given us time to fire up the barbecues, catch some of Wimbledon (starts at 7:00 a.m. in most U.S. time zones), a bit of the World Cup, and some good old American baseball.
It's not clear how many Americans remember what the holiday is all about as they march in parades and, in regions where there has been enough rain to eliminate the threat of fire, set off dazzling firework displays. President Bush is jogging American memories: the holiday is a celebration of freedom from foreign oppression, won in a long war whipped up by a band of brilliant revolutionaries (aka our Founding Fathers) intent on ending English rule in the 13 colonies.
The president believes that the war in Iraq is a similar struggle--one designed to spread democracy to a nation long ruled by serial murderer intent both on destabilizing the Middle East and supporting terrorists. The American people differ: 58 percent of those responding to an ABC News/Washington Post poll now say the war was not worth fighting and an even larger portion (64 percent) says that Bush has no clear plan as to what to do in Iraq. Fortunately for the president and the Republican congressmen who have to face the electorate in November, 71 percent of Americans think the Democrats also lack a clear plan. Yet
despite this massive uncertainty about the war, 68 percent of Americans believe that by overthrowing Saddam we have improved the lives of the Iraqi people and 51 percent approve of the campaign against terrorism.
Given the TV images of the carnage in Iraq, the lack of coverage of the successes there, and a press dominated by newspapers to whom George W. Bush is an accidental president out of tune with their liberal social and economic agendas, public doubts about the president's Iraq policy are no surprise. What is surprising is that as large a portion of Americans (over 60 percent) disapprove of his handling of the economy as disapprove of his handling of the situation in Iraq.
The economy is, after all, continuing to grow. Last week's data revisions raised the first quarter growth rate to 5.6 percent. Ed Lazear, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, told a congressional committee that he expects the economy to grow by 3.3 percent over the next year, and that the trend that has seen the economy produce 2 million jobs each year since mid-2003, "is largely expected to continue with some slight moderation in 2006 and 2007."
Lazear concluded, "In short, the economy continues to grow, inflation expectations are moderate, and the labor market is strong." It doesn't get much better than that. So why the pervasive unhappiness?
ONCE AGAIN, the anti-Bush media play their part. For example, Lazear's assessment of the overall outlook received a lot less attention than the decision by some 43,000 auto workers to accept General Motors' and its suppliers' redundancy packages. And the 4.6 percent rise in new home sales in May received a lot less attention that did reports of rising inventories of unsold homes. Virtually unremarked was a report that durable goods orders, excluding the volatile defense and aircraft sectors, rose in May, as did shipments, bringing inventories down to levels that economists at Goldman Sachs say creates "a reasonably positive near-term outlook."
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