CAN PRESIDENT BUSH help Republicans retain control of Congress? He thinks so. And so do more Republican candidates than you might guess, given Bush's improved but still relatively low popularity. In fact, he'll appear in many states not ordinarily viewed as Bush country: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, California, Ohio, just to name five. "I think I can help," Bush said at an Oval Office session last week with seven journalists. "And if I can't, Laura can." First Lady Laura Bush, who years ago told Bush she'd marry him so long as she'd never have to give a speech, has become a frequent campaigner for Republican candidates.

Bush has no illusions about his ability to persuade Democrats to vote for Republicans. But he thinks he can influence independents and drive up Republican turnout on November 7. "There are a lot of people out there that hopefully I'll be able to inspire to turn out," the president said. "There's a lot of people out there from the '04 campaign that are motivated by this administration." He didn't mention the problem he may have in persuading alienated conservatives to vote.

He cited his history, as president, of overcoming early expectations of defeat. "They said that there's no way this president," who won a close election in 2000, "can do anything in 2002." But he barnstormed for Republicans, who wound up winning two seats in the Senate and six in the House. In early 2004, when he was running for reelection, Bush said, the conventional wisdom was

Is Bush kidding himself? Is his optimism about the midterm election merely the happy talk required of a party leader? My guess is he really believes it and doesn't take the case for a Democratic sweep seriously. Still, the consensus view of his aides is that, as things now stand, Republicans will hold the Senate and House by very narrow margins, perhaps by only two or three seats in each body. This means that, even by the calculations of his advisers, an eruption of bad news could tilt the election to Democrats.

We know the case for a Democratic resurgence: Iraq, Katrina, and puny wage gains that trail the growth in the economy and productivity. On top of those, the president's approval rating, at roughly 42 percent, is below where he stood in 2002 (low 60s) and 2004 (low 50s) and correlates with a decisive defeat for Republicans.

But Bush is correct that he can still have a large and even decisive role as an active player in the campaign. If Bush "has the ability to dominate the dialogue, he can push this election toward the Republicans even as he remains unpopular with the voters," pollster Bill McInturff told the Wall Street Journal last week. For one thing, because he has the biggest megaphone, he can affect what Republican chairman Ken Mehlman calls the "national conversation" that already accompanies the campaign.