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Yikes!

Kristol, Barnes, Labash, Continetti, Matus, Last, and the rest give their midterm election predictions.

5:00 PM, Nov 3, 2006 • By WEEKLY STANDARD STAFF
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William Kristol

Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)

House: 192 (R), 243 (D)

Dark Horse: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado.

Fred Barnes

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)

House: 210 (R), 225 (D)

Dark Horse: Conrad Burns holds on in Montana.

Terry Eastland

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)

House: 203 (R), 232 (D)

Dark Horse: The Man of Steele helps keep the GOP on top in the Senate while the House does an about-face.

Matthew Continetti

Senate: 49 (R), 51 (D)

House: 212 (R), 223 (D)

Dark Horse: Steele wins Maryland, Webb wins Virginia, and when Lieberman replaces Rumsfeld, popular GOP CT Gov. Jodi Rell appoints a Republican to the seat, leading to an evenly divided Senate.

Richard Starr

Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)

House: 195 (R), 240 (D)

Dark Horse: Arizona wipeout. Kyl loses. Hayworth loses.

David Tell

Senate: 49 (R), 51 (D)

House: 205 (R), 230 (D)

Dark Horse: Dina Titus (D) beats Jim Gibbons (R) in the Nevada gubernatorial race.

Duncan Currie

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 206 (R), 229 (D)

Dark Horse: Thanks in part to voter-instruction signs explaining that a vote for "Mark Foley" is a vote for Joe Negron, the Republicans will hold Foley's House district in Florida. And despite trailing in public polls all year, Bob Ehrlich will win reelection as governor of Maryland.

Andrew Ferguson

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 218 (R), 217 (D)

Dark Horse: Don Sherwood pulls it off in PA-10.

Victorino Matus

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 210 (R), 225 (D)

Dark Horse: Don't be surprised if Republican discontent also impacts the District of Columbia. After careful consideration and analysis of previous election cycles, I believe Democrat Adrian Fenty has a reasonable chance of becoming the city's next mayor. Don't get me wrong--the District's Republicans will put up a fierce fight. But when the dust settles, Fenty will squeak by (with roughly 92 percent of the vote).

David Skinner

Senate: 52 (R), 48 (D)

House: 212 (R), 223 (D)

Dark Horse: Michael Steele wins, Michael J. Fox loses. No, I mean Ben Cardin loses.

Matt Labash

Senate: 49 (R), 51 (D)

House: 205 (R), 230 (D)

Dark Horse: Joseph "Joe" Gochinski will demolish both Isaac Mass and H. Peter Wood in the white-hot register of deeds race in Franklin County, Massachusetts. You heard it here first.

Michael Goldfarb

Senate: 53 (R), 47 (D)

House: 216 (R), 219 (D)

Dark Horse: In Maryland, look for Michael Steele to eke out a narrow victory in his senate race against Benjamin Cardin, while Republicans outperform expectations across the board.

Dan McKivergan

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)

House: 207 (R), 228 (D)

Dark Horse: Steele pulls it out; Democratic enthusiasm for Ben Cardin further erodes and he falls short in areas where he should have run up the vote against his Republican opponent. Chafee almost crawls over the victory line, but Rhode Island becomes an all Democratic congressional state.

Sonny Bunch

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 214 (R), 221 (D)

Dark Horse: Keep an eye on Kentucky as the night goes along. Three seats are in play (the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th), and two of them are solid Bush districts. While it's unlikely there will be a sweep (the only poll showing the GOP candidate losing in the 2nd district is one commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), should the GOP lose 2 (or, more unlikely, all 3), Republicans will be in for a long (25-to-30-seat-loss long) night.

Jonathan V. Last

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)

House: 216 (R), 219 (D)

Dark Horse: The biggest loss for Republicans isn't the House--which will go to post-election re-counts and litigation, but Michael Steele, who should win by every objective measure of character and intelligence--but probably won't. If Steele does pull out a miracle win, look for two Marylanders--Steele and Martin O'Malley--on presidential ballots within the next eight years.

Whitney Blake

Senate: 52 (R), 48 (D)

House: 212 (R), 223 (D)

Dark Horse: TX-22 and FL-16 will go Republican while the Missouri Senate race ends with a recount.

Joseph Lindsley

Senate: 52 (R), 48 (D)

House: 214 (R), 221 (D)

Dark Horse: The GOP Steeles the election in Maryland--unfortunately, Democrats are not able to claim that African-American voters have been disfranchised.