'A Tidal Wave of Change'

IN NOVEMBER 2005, I was asked to make a presentation to the House Republican Conference. In the hallway where I was waiting, a large flat-screen TV played encouraging messages to members from their leadership. In this motivational loop of video, there was one particular piece that stuck in my mind. It was a slickly produced segment that looked like a Hollywood movie preview. It reviewed the last 12 years--how, in every election cycle since 1994, the media and Democrats had predicted "a sea change in the House . . . a tidal wave of change." And after flashing a few newspaper headlines and quotes, the screen would go black until, writ large, a phrase appeared: "They were wrong."

This year, Republicans were wrong. Their leadership was wrong. Their vision (if there was one) was wrong. Their messages were wrong. On Election Night, my firm did a nationwide poll of voters to measure and determine the extent of GOP failure. The results were ugly. This election was more than a message to the Republican personalities that have led America since 1994. It was a vote of no confidence:

* We have always had universal faith and trust in democracy, yet one-third of all voters (34 percent) said they had little or no trust "in their elected officials to do the right thing most of the time."

* We have always been the most optimistic and hopeful nation, yet almost half (48 percent) said they were somewhat or very afraid "for the future of America and where the country seems to be headed."

* We have always reserved our anger for our favorite sports teams and bad drivers, yet more than half (52 percent) said politics in America made them "mad as hell and [they] weren't going to take it anymore."

* We have always believed in inter generational improvement as a core component of the American Dream, yet 57 percent believe "the children of tomorrow will inherit a worse America than what your parents left you."

The last time so many Americans were so angry, anxious, and afraid was in 1974, during a time of genuine political, economic, and military crisis. To call this election a "political correction" is to ignore just how widespread was the feeling of betrayal. Republicans rode into town in 1994 on a wave of discontent. Earlier this week, they were thrown out because of another.

Far too many congressional candidates refused to engage their constituents in a two-way discussion of the challenges in Iraq. Far too few hosted Medicare prescription drug forums to help seniors sign up and save money. Almost no one stood up to demand an end to the one issue that brought these members to power in the first place: wasteful Washington spending.

But within every rejection are the seeds of redemption. As difficult as it may be for Republicans to utter the words "Speaker Pelosi," they still have the White House (sort of) to serve as a check on congressional Democrats--at least for the next two years. If congressional Republicans want and expect to recapture House and Senate majorities in 2008, they have much to learn and do in the next 24 months:

Lesson One: "I was wrong." Those three simple words never came from the lips of any Republican anywhere, and it is one reason so many Republicans were defeated. Voters saw hubris instead of humility, and voting against the GOP was the only way they could send a message of rebuke. The Responsible Republicans of 1994 who engaged their constituents in a mature, meaningful dialogue became the Inept Republicans of 2006 who asserted and demanded but did not listen to the people they served. Sacking Donald Rumsfeld was the White House's way of acknowledging they blew it. Congressional Republicans need to take the same course by replacing those who led the GOP into the wilderness with a new generation of leaders with voices more attuned to the people back home. Voters want a clean sweep. Ignore them at your peril.