Lesson One: "I was wrong." Those three simple words never came from the lips of any Republican anywhere, and it is one reason so many Republicans were defeated. Voters saw hubris instead of humility, and voting against the GOP was the only way they could send a message of rebuke. The Responsible Republicans of 1994 who engaged their constituents in a mature, meaningful dialogue became the Inept Republicans of 2006 who asserted and demanded but did not listen to the people they served. Sacking Donald Rumsfeld was the White House's way of acknowledging they blew it. Congressional Republicans need to take the same course by replacing those who led the GOP into the wilderness with a new generation of leaders with voices more attuned to the people back home. Voters want a clean sweep. Ignore them at your peril.
Lesson Two: Voters care about the spending of government, not the size. All across America, Republican candidates closed their campaigns with the warning that Democrats would increase government and increase taxes. And all across America, Republicans lost. What Americans wanted from their elected officials was fiscal discipline, accountability, and ethics. But these words simply did not describe a party of bridges to nowhere and congressmen who lined their pockets with cash. In our Election Night poll, we asked voters which issue most annoyed them about the Republican-controlled Congress. Among the Americans who swung from the GOP to the Democrats (Republican Rejecters), "unethical and illegal behavior going unpunished" was number two
on the list (behind illegal immigration). For congressional Republicans to return to majority status, they must once again become the guardians of the national interest, the protectors of the purse strings, and the purveyors of honesty. If they don't regain the trust of the people over the next two years, they won't regain Congress.
Lesson Three: Run on reform. Fully 40 percent of the Republican Rejecters and 36 percent of the overall electorate want "significant, bold change in the way America is run." Even 18 percent of Republican congressional voters want a dramatic change in the direction of our country. If congressional Republicans are listening, they will demand new leadership that embraces the cleansing power of reform. Just as the Democratic promise to take America in "a new direction" led them to majority status, congressional Republicans need to set their party off onto a different path--a path toward real, meaningful reform.
Lesson Four: The future must be better than the past. The 1994 Contract With America wasn't a political gimmick. It was a clearly articulated agenda that addressed the day-to-day problems and concerns of average Americans. It was tough on spending, tough on taxes, tough on welfare, tough on crime--tough on all the things Americans wanted less of so that they could have more of what they really wanted: freedom and security. Several dozen members begged their leadership to offer a new Republican contract in 2006 because they sensed, correctly, that the party had lost its focus on the future and was interested only in defending the present. The response? Silence. The next leadership team needs to remember that no vision means no votes.
The mood of this country has changed since 2004, and because of it, some have already written off Repub lican chances for recapturing the House and Senate in 2008. The question Americans will be asking is whether Republicans learned anything from this election. The answers will determine the future of the GOP: that of a phoenix or a pariah.
Frank Luntz is the author of the upcoming book Words that Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear.
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