IT JUST HASN'T WORKED OUT the way the punditocracy planned: The "adults" of the Bush 41 administration were supposed to talk Bush 43 off the ledge, get him to give up his dream of democracy in Iraq and return to reality. But the main recommendation of the Baker- Hamilton "Iraq Study Group"--withdrawal by early 2008, covered by negotiations with Iran and Syria--has little value outside Washington, and none in Baghdad or the region. The president declared he has no interest in a "graceful exit [that] just simply has no realism to it at all," forcing one study group member to lament: "He's a true believer."

So what now?

At long last, the Bush administration appears willing to consider increasing the size of the U.S. force in Iraq. The White House has been floating rumors to this effect, especially since the announcement that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was stepping down, but last week the New York Times produced the smoking gun: In a November 8 memo, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley suggested the "need to fill the four-brigade gap in Baghdad with coalition forces" and that it might be a good idea to "ask [the] Secretary of Defense and General [George] Casey [the top U.S. commander in Iraq] to make a recommendation about whether more forces are need[ed] in Baghdad."

At the Pentagon, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Peter Pace, is running a military version of the Iraq Study Group. While the Pace review is likely to produce a range of

But what, exactly, makes a surge? Hadley's "four-brigade gap in Baghdad" would mean, at minimum, putting about 14,000 more troops in the capital. Would these be transferred from other hot spots in Iraq, or deployed from the United States? The Pace "surge option" of 20,000 troops, on top of the 145,000 in Iraq, is roughly consistent with Hadley's thinking.

As important as the size of the surge is how long it will last. The greatest danger is that an increase in troop levels morphs into a policy of "surge and run." The Washington establishment almost uniformly regards the war as lost; the insurgents have nearly won the war inside the Beltway. The would-be Wise Men are lining up behind the withdrawal proposals of the Baker-Hamilton commission in the belief that bipartisanship is the essence of strategy. On cue, Sen. Christopher Dodd last week predicted that "there may be a growing bipartisan support in this country for what Jim Baker, Lee Hamilton [and] the other members of that commission have put together."

Thus, the president must insist on a surge-and-sustain effort for the remainder of his term. It won't be easy. American domestic support for the war in Iraq is at bottom. The Democratic majority in Congress and, perhaps more important, a dazed, confused, and angry Republican minority, will have to be dealt with. The Democrats may lack the nerve to force a retreat from Iraq, but wavering Republicans might feel a greater sense of urgency.