LESS THAN A MONTH AGO, the situation in Somalia seemed dire. The Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a radical group that is affiliated with al Qaeda, was on the brink of destroying the U.N.-recognized transitional federal government (TFG). Seventeen terrorist training camps were operational and terrorists from Afghanistan, Chechnya, the Arabian peninsula, and other places were flocking to Somalia to train in or staff these camps. ICU leaders brimmed with confidence.

But when the ICU began what it intended as the final assault on Baidoa, the south-central Somali city to which the TFG had been relegated, the Ethiopian military (which was protecting the TFG) responded with greater force than expected. The ICU had no good response to Ethiopian airpower. And recent revelations by U.S. intelligence and TFG officials show that U.S. air and ground forces were active from the outset, including CIA paramilitary officers, Special Operations forces, Marine units, and helicopter gunships. The Ethiopians and TFG took Mogadishu from the ICU on December 28 and have reversed most of the ICU's geographic gains.

The ICU is now preparing an insurgency, just as the head of its executive council, Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed, has called for. A senior military intelligence officer told me that ICU forces' tendency to "melt away" as Ethiopian troops advance is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan.

While the Somali war is far from over, this is an appropriate time to consider the likely future of the conflict: America's decisions over the next few weeks will have a great impact on the success or failure of the mission.

THERE IS CURRENTLY REASON for optimism. While some observers seem certain that the Islamic Courts will succeed in mounting a powerful insurgency, it is important to note that this is not what the ICU wanted. The Islamic Courts expected to rout the Ethiopian forces protecting Baidoa and kill or capture the TFG's leaders. For them, insurgency is the last resort, not the master plan.

But just because insurgency is a last resort does not mean that it cannot succeed. A confidential U.N. report on Somalia released in late 2006 warned that "the ICU is fully capable of turning Somalia into what is currently an Iraq-type scenario, replete with roadside and suicide bombers, assassinations and other forms of terrorist and insurgent-type activities."

One factor that will determine whether the ICU successfully launches an insurgency in the near future is the scope of the losses it suffers on the battlefield now. Military intelligence analysts feel that the ICU will bounce back unless a significant portion of its fighters are killed or captured. There appears to be an important opportunity at present: a large number of ICU fighters are massed in Ras Kamboni, a coastal town near the Kenyan border where they appear to have gone to regroup.

Estimates of the number of ICU fighters in Ras Kamboni provided by intelligence analysts and sources within the TFG vary widely. The number of fighters has been placed as low as 600 and as high as 5,000. But clearly there is a significant contingent. ICU members in Ras Kamboni appear to be communicating with high-level al Qaeda leaders: according to a senior military intelligence officer, their calls for assistance motivated Ayman al-Zawahiri's January 5 tape which urged his followers to go to Somalia to fight alongside the ICU.