See Rudy Run

Sioux City, Iowa

Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City and candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, is wandering around a junior high school computer lab, smiling like a child. It's the early evening of July 18, and this is Giuliani's fourth campaign stop of the day. In a half hour or so he will take questions from audience members in the school's gymnasium. But right now he is pointing out and reading aloud the signs above the different computers in the lab, which say things like "Dam Control" . . . "Electrical Grid" . . . "Water Supply". . . .

"You know what this is like?" he says. "This is just like . . . a . . . an emergency response center!"

The glee with which Giuliani says this, the joy he clearly takes at being in a room that reminds him of places where he can be in charge, barking orders and leading others, helps explain his appeal as a presidential candidate. It's an appeal that many in the press and in elite Republican circles seem not to have recognized. The conventional wisdom holds that as grassroots conservatives wake up to Giuliani's differences with them on issues like abortion, they will ditch him in favor of someone else. That may be happening to some extent, but it hasn't knocked Giuliani out of first place or undermined the rationale for his candidacy. Despite his variance on some issues with some conservatives, a decline in national public opinion polls since early March, and a recent spate of harsh media coverage, Giuliani remains the frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination. He continues to lead in national polls and in many state polls. He's winning the money race. And he's preparing for the inevitable counterattack.

Nothing is guaranteed in politics, of course. And there's no question Giuliani's decline has been real. Charles Franklin, a political scientist and polling expert at the University of Wisconsin, estimates that the mayor's support has fallen around 8 percentage points nationally since March. The trend in support for Giuliani in Iowa and New Hampshire is also downward. So far, Sen. John McCain's estimated 10 percentage point decline nationally, and the hemorrhaging of cash and staff from his campaign, has overshadowed Giuliani's downward trend. But the trend is there.

A combination of factors may have contributed to Giuliani's decline. His aides say the drop in poll numbers is a fall from an "unnatural high," the inevitable result of a competitive, four-way primary between Giuliani, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and McCain. The aides go on to say Giuliani has not yet fully engaged in the campaign, whether through personal retail politics, television and radio advertising, or direct mail. Giuliani has visited Iowa only six times since entering the race. What made this most recent Iowa trip so unusual was that Giuliani held nine events over two days. In the past he has limited public appearances to one or two a day. For now, Giuliani's main concern remains fundraising. Compared with McCain and Romney, Giuliani has spent relatively little money. He has not aired a single television ad. "Romney had $8 million in the bank before we had telephones," says Jim Dyke, one of Giuliani's senior communications advisers.

Giuliani has received more than his share of negative publicity. So far this summer he has lost his South Carolina campaign chairman to a criminal indictment, faced questions over his relationship with the Iraq Study Group, and seen a key southern ally, Louisiana senator David Vitter, admit to hiring a prostitute. Democrats and their affiliates have attacked him for actions he took (or failed to take) before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Press releases from the Democratic National Committee have criticized his "failing leadership as mayor," his "divisive leadership," his law firm's lobbying activities, and much else. And all of this is just the beginning. The attacks on Giuliani's business interests, former associates, and operatic personal life will mount as 2008 approaches.

For the moment, however, it seems Giuliani has weathered the storm. Last week's Washington Post/ABC News poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents had him running more than 20 points ahead of either McCain or Thompson. In the Gallup poll, after reaching a low of 28 percent support in early June (while still leading the field), the mayor appears to have stabilized at 30 percent. The surveys bolster the Giuliani campaign's contention that his decline has halted. "By any polling standard," Charles Franklin wrote in a July 24 email, Giuliani "is, as of today, the clear frontrunner. He has led McCain in 96 of 108 national polls, led Romney in 104 of 104, and led Thompson in 46 of 47."