On March 11, Fred Thompson told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday that he was giving "serious consideration" to joining the race for president. Within a month he had made his decision: He would run.

Almost immediately, he was a first-tier candidate. News stories noted the intriguing new prospect, previously unenthusiastic Republican activists seemed invigorated, polling by news outlets and rival candidates showed Thompson as one of the top three Republicans. And he had not yet entered the contest. Times were good. So good, in fact, that Thompson joked about delaying any announcement indefinitely.

"I told somebody the other day: I can't afford to announce. I'm doing too well."

Now, after a series of well-publicized missteps and months of being subject to media scrutiny usually reserved for announced candidates, the opposite seems to be true: Thompson can't afford not to announce.

Although he had many friends and supporters encouraging him to join the race last spring, Thompson opted instead to form a "testing-the-waters" committee that enabled him to raise money and begin putting together a campaign operation. But Thompson's noncampaign has been marked by lackluster fundraising and personnel issues more characteristic of the final days of a losing campaign than the first days of a winning effort. Thompson hired veteran Washington hand Tom Collamore to serve as his campaign manager and fired him a short time later. The top communications staffer was brought on and dismissed in similar fashion, and another press officer left, too. An early effort to raise $5 million in

There have been other difficulties. Thompson's team mishandled reports that he had lobbied for an abortion rights group in the early 1990s, strongly denying the story at first only to allow later that he didn't remember the details of those interactions. He told a tax reform group on videotape that he would "absolutely" sign legislation replacing the income tax with a consumption tax, but later said his answer was misunderstood.

Does any of this matter? Several Thompson supporters believe he made a mistake by waiting to join the race. They worry that his wink-and-a-nod candidacy has undermined his main strength: his ability to present himself as a plainspoken, no--nonsense conservative. What's more, they say, Thompson's refusal to actively campaign reinforces what rival campaigns have suggested is Thompson's chief weakness: laziness.

Others dismiss such second-guessing as the preoccupation of a chronically impatient pundit class. Thompson has always had a date in mind, they say, and he is unapologetic about his refusal to be pressured into the race. "The media are imposing models on the Thompson campaign that just don't fit," says one senior Thompson adviser. "It's still not yet a campaign. . . . Until you hit a date when the rubber hits the road, you can make mistakes. In these early days, Fred will tolerate mistakes made on his behalf and, in some cases, at his behest."