The Long Hello

On March 11, Fred Thompson told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday that he was giving "serious consideration" to joining the race for president. Within a month he had made his decision: He would run.

Almost immediately, he was a first-tier candidate. News stories noted the intriguing new prospect, previously unenthusiastic Republican activists seemed invigorated, polling by news outlets and rival candidates showed Thompson as one of the top three Republicans. And he had not yet entered the contest. Times were good. So good, in fact, that Thompson joked about delaying any announcement indefinitely.

"I told somebody the other day: I can't afford to announce. I'm doing too well."

Now, after a series of well-publicized missteps and months of being subject to media scrutiny usually reserved for announced candidates, the opposite seems to be true: Thompson can't afford not to announce.

Although he had many friends and supporters encouraging him to join the race last spring, Thompson opted instead to form a "testing-the-waters" committee that enabled him to raise money and begin putting together a campaign operation. But Thompson's noncampaign has been marked by lackluster fundraising and personnel issues more characteristic of the final days of a losing campaign than the first days of a winning effort. Thompson hired veteran Washington hand Tom Collamore to serve as his campaign manager and fired him a short time later. The top communications staffer was brought on and dismissed in similar fashion, and another press officer left, too. An early effort to raise $5 million in June came up short, and in an interview last week with the Politico's Jonathan Martin, Thompson acknowledged that the numbers from the summer would not impress. "I imagine we will fall off some in July and August and have a great September," he said.

There have been other difficulties. Thompson's team mishandled reports that he had lobbied for an abortion rights group in the early 1990s, strongly denying the story at first only to allow later that he didn't remember the details of those interactions. He told a tax reform group on videotape that he would "absolutely" sign legislation replacing the income tax with a consumption tax, but later said his answer was misunderstood.

Does any of this matter? Several Thompson supporters believe he made a mistake by waiting to join the race. They worry that his wink-and-a-nod candidacy has undermined his main strength: his ability to present himself as a plainspoken, no--nonsense conservative. What's more, they say, Thompson's refusal to actively campaign reinforces what rival campaigns have suggested is Thompson's chief weakness: laziness.

Others dismiss such second-guessing as the preoccupation of a chronically impatient pundit class. Thompson has always had a date in mind, they say, and he is unapologetic about his refusal to be pressured into the race. "The media are imposing models on the Thompson campaign that just don't fit," says one senior Thompson adviser. "It's still not yet a campaign. . . . Until you hit a date when the rubber hits the road, you can make mistakes. In these early days, Fred will tolerate mistakes made on his behalf and, in some cases, at his behest."

What's more, they say, it was not realistic for a candidate who was regularly polling second to jump in without a proper organization in place. "If you're Mike Huckabee, you can run with three people and a cell phone. Fred Thompson can't do that," says a second Thompson adviser.

Despite his difficulties, Thompson continues to place second in most national polls measuring support of Republican presidential candidates. "Giuliani's numbers haven't gone higher, McCain is down, and Romney's numbers are up where he's spending lots of money," says a third Thompson adviser.

"You've got to talk to people when they're listening," says Mary Matalin, an adviser to Thompson. "They're not listening in August."

Thompson hopes they'll be listening in September. On Wednesday, September 5, shortly after his Republican rivals debate in New Hampshire, he will appear on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno to announce that he will be launching his campaign the following day in a speech broadcast on his website, imwithfred.com. That evening, he will call in to supporters gathered at Thompson-for-president house parties across the country. Thompson will travel immediately to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--three critical early primary states. The second leg of the launch tour will include several stops in Florida, which Thompson strategists have long viewed as critical to their bid to win the Republican nomination. He will finish his initial campaign foray with a visit to his hometown of Lawrenceburg, Tenn., on Saturday, September 15.