You didn't see it on TV. Because when Mitt Romney was talking during last week's Republican presidential debate on Fox News, the camera was on him, not John McCain. But McCain was sending a message. He looked at Romney with disdain and rolled his eyes at nearly everything Romney said. The message from McCain was that he's a contender after all for the Republican nomination and ready to take on his opponents vigorously, Romney in particular.

McCain's rise from his political deathbed (as a presidential candidate) was one of two events that reshaped the Republican race as it entered the serious phase, the real campaign, post-Labor Day. The other was Fred Thompson's impressive leap into the contest after having sleepwalked through the I'm-thinking-about-it phase of his candidacy with a series of desultory speeches over the summer. As a full-blown candidate, Thompson was suddenly animated, energized, and appealing.

So here's where the campaign stands with actual voting in Iowa, New Hampshire, and a lot of other places roughly three months away. Based on their chances of winning the nomination, I rank the candidates in this order: (1) Rudy Giuliani, (2) Romney, (3) Thompson, and (4) McCain. The top three are closely bunched, with McCain trailing.

Let's start with Rudy. He is far and away the best campaigner in the field. His performance in the Fox debate in New Hampshire wasn't his best, but he was still pretty good. He skillfully deflected a tough question that suggested his family values are not as strong as Romney's.

"I think someone's private life, someone's family life, is something that you all look into to determine how are they going to conduct themselves in public office," he responded. "And in my case, you have 30 years, 35 years of experience to figure out how I would." After listing a few of his achievements, Giuliani added: "Any issues in my private life do not affect my public performance."

Giuliani's most important feat has been to defuse the issue of his social liberalism. I'm not sure exactly how he's done it, but he's left the impression that while he's pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-gay rights, conservatives need not worry. These are just opinions, not principles he would act on as president. At least that's what he's implied.

Giuliani gets credit for having, as mayor, transformed New York City, a Democratic stronghold. Romney gets far less from having been a Republican governor of a Democratic state, Massachusetts. But he has looks, money, a strong organization, and a set of conservative proposals that are well thought out. He's formidable.

There's something in Romney's political persona that has kept him from gaining national support, but where it really matters--Iowa and New Hampshire, the first states to vote next January--he has double-digit leads over his rivals. His opponents argue this is just because he's run TV ads in those states. That's true--and the ads have obviously worked.

If Romney wins those two states, he'll be difficult to stop. The significant thing is that he'll have enough money to run expensive media campaigns in the subsequent primaries. So Romney shouldn't be underestimated.