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The Huckabee Surge
He's running strong in Iowa, but has he peaked?
by Terry Eastland
12/03/2007, Volume 013, Issue 12

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For Bob Vander Plaats, January 3--the day of the Iowa caucus--can't get here quickly enough. Vander Plaats, chairman of the Mike Huckabee campaign in Iowa, can read the polls, and in the latest surveys of likely Republican caucus-goers Mike Huckabee came in second, trailing Mitt Romney by only two points in the American Research Group poll and by four points in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of the same voters. "Our goal is like that of a good basketball team," he says. "It wants to peak at tournament time. And we want to peak at caucus time."

When the former Arkansas governor announced his candidacy last winter, few political observers thought the campaign would take off. Inside the Huckabee camp, the explanation for his rise is simple. Where the "top-tier" candidates have emphasized the war on terror, says one of his staffers, Huckabee has focused on domestic issues. And he has presented himself and his views directly to voters in "retail" campaigning: "town by town, community by community, house by house," favoring the small ball of a "dinner-time conversation" over the (ostensibly) big-ball "hard-core speech" or television ad.

Vander Plaats notes that Iowa Republicans are "unsettled" about the presidential race. However much they like Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or John McCain (who seems to have written off the state), they remain open to an alternative--a conservative to their liking (even someone more conservative than Bush, if the polls are an accurate gauge). "There was anticipation that Newt [Gingrich] might get

in, and we like Newt, but he doesn't get in. With Fred Thompson, we heard that he was another Ronald Reagan. He gets in but he overpromises and underperforms." So Iowa Republicans, says Vander Plaats, have been looking more closely at the guy from Arkansas doing the heavy retail business. You can date Huckabee's ascent from August 13 when he came in a surprising second in the Ames straw poll, having said he was hoping to finish in the top five.

Even before Ames, Huckabee had a goal for the January 3 caucus: to get, as he told me in an interview in late July, "one of three tickets out of Iowa--first class, business, or coach," meaning first, second, and third place. Publicly, at least, the campaign has no illusions about catching Romney, who has spent heavily in the state and has an effective organization. "To beat him will really prove tough," says Vander Plaats. But the polls show the distance between the two candidates narrowing in recent weeks, and Huckabee's rise has meant that Romney and other Republican candidates must take him seriously.

They've begun targeting Huckabee's gubernatorial record, especi-ally his record on taxes and illegal immigration, the top issue for Iowa Republicans. Thus, Fred Thompson, for whom a top-three finish is a must if his campaign is ever to take off, has said Huckabee was "one of the [nation's] highest-taxing governors." And Romney, hoping to maintain if not lengthen his lead, has seized on a Huckabee proposal to give "special tuition breaks" to children of illegal immigrants.



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