Obama Wins Big

Columbia, South Carolina

In many ways, the South Carolina primary was a free play for Hillary Clinton. She had been down here by double digits since the New Year. South Carolina's demography was against her, too. In Nevada, the only state so far with a significant black vote, Clinton lost African-American voters to Barack Obama by a margin of 83 percent to 14 percent. Blacks make up 29 percent of the population in South Carolina, and exit polls show that 53 percent of the Democratic electorate today was black, up from 47 percent in 2004.

When both Clintons swooped into the state mid-week, and the polls tightened slightly, it appeared that Hillary Clinton might have thought she could make it a race. But on Friday night, the campaign announced that the Clintons would leave South Carolina today and start campaigning this evening in Tennessee (Hillary) and Missouri (Bill). They knew South Carolina was lost. And was it ever. The final numbers are not yet in, but it appears Obama will win by about 25 points.

It's important not to discount Obama's victory--winning always beats losing. But one of two things may have happened as a result of Bill Clinton injecting himself into the campaign. The biggest news this week was the former president's mild suggestion that race and gender could play into the primary here. It turned out he was half right. Hillary Clinton lost women for the first time since Iowa. But Obama carried the black vote by nearly the same giant margin he did in Nevada--80 percent to 18 percent. He got only 25 percent of the white vote, which was split evenly between Clinton and John Edwards.

So here's the question: Going forward will it turn out that President Clinton maneuvered the Obama campaign into becoming, quite unwittingly, a campaign about racial solidarity? Earlier today Bill Clinton dismissed South Carolina by observing that Jesse Jackson won the state in both 1984 and 1988.

Or did Clinton's foray into his wife's campaign help remind Democrats why they were glad to be rid of the pair at the end of the '90s?

Here's what the exit polling shows:

* Clinton got walloped among women, losing 53 percent to 30 percent. She lost black women 79 percent to 19 percent, nearly the same percentage that she lost black men (82 percent to 15 percent).

* Obama was strong across all age groups; Clinton won only voters over 65.

* 58 percent of voters reported that Bill Clinton's campaigning was important. Obama carried this group by 11 points. But here's the important thing: Obama's margin was bigger among voters who thought Bill Clinton wasn't important. Obama was +49 among that group. Hillary Clinton actually won voters who said Bill Clinton was "very important" by 3 points.

But how seriously should these numbers be taken? While 58 percent said that Bill Clinton's campaigning since Wednesday was important, only 21 percent of voters said they made up their minds during the last 3 days.

* Two other abstract, but interesting results from questions on whether or not America is ready to elect a black or a woman president. About the same percentage--22 percent--said "no" to each. As you would expect, Clinton won voters who thought America isn't ready for a black president and Obama won voters who thought America wasn't ready for a woman. But their margins were very different: Clinton was only +25 among voters who thought we're not ready for a black president. Obama was +61 among voters who thought America wasn't ready for a woman.

This further suggests that Obama received more identity-group solidarity than Clinton did, even among voters who think he may not be electable.