The Kremlin Went Down to Georgia
Our friends in the Caucasus need help.
12:00 AM, May 16, 2008 • By CHARLIE SZROM
AS THE BIRTHPLACE OF THE world's first vineyards, Georgia (the country, not the home of Michael Vick's unfortunate employer), might not seem the likeliest spot for a conflict that could derail critical U.S. foreign policy interests.
Through such actions, Russia hopes to make Abkhazia a de facto part of Russia and incite Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili, whose party faces voters on May 21, to take rash action.
Russia does not need to win a war--it just needs to make Georgia appear unstable enough to dash any NATO accession hopes. Berlin, Rome, and other European capitals will not want to share the Article 5 common-defense-clause with a country on the brink or in the midst of war.
Instability in Georgia in the short-term and a non-NATO Georgia in the long-term would destroy Georgia's value as a strategic energy corridor, a democratic example, and a key U.S. military partner.
The only Central Asian oil not from Russia or Iran passes through Georgia via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at a volume of up to 1 million barrels a day; conflict with Russia would lessen or eliminate this energy supply. A greater petroleum monopoly would further empower Moscow and Tehran. Conflict in the Caucasus would push up oil prices already nearing $125 a barrel, hurting American consumers anguished by nearly $4 a gallon gas.
Georgia represents the best hope for democratic aspirations in a region darkened by autocracy. While Saakashvili sometimes uses strong-arm tactics--his police forces temporarily shut down the opposition television station Imedi last fall--he acts more democratically than his neighbors. After a relatively clean election in March, Armenian authorities declared a 20-day state of emergency that banned any media from broadcasting political news and put the runner-up of the election under house arrest. Russia used its latest election merely to rubber-stamp a chosen successor: Dmitry Medvedev took up his role as president officially on May 7 primarily because of his loyalty to Putin. In Iran, an unelected body of clerics vets all candidates for president, banning politicians who do not toe the party line. Stable peace in the Caucasus will only come when more countries follow Georgia down the path to democracy, which will cause states to recognize their shared interests along the way.
Nearly 2,000 Georgians serve in Iraq along the Iranian border. The Georgians in Wasit province fill a critical role as Iran continues to support Special Groups and provide Iraqi insurgents with explosively formed projectiles (EFPs), which are smaller in number than improvised explosive devices (IEDs) but more deadly in execution. Georgia has sacrificed for America--it lost two soldiers at the beginning of this month. We owe Tbilisi our support.