THIS IS THE SUMMER of our discontent. Only 14 percent of us are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, the lowest figure recorded by Gallup's pollsters since they began asking that question almost fifteen years ago. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in 28 years, according to the respected Reuters/University of Michigan survey. And not many Americans are expecting things to improve soon. "Consumers' economic outlook is so bleak that the Expectations Index has reached a new all-time low," reports the Conference Board.
In part this pervasive gloom is due to gasoline prices that have passed the $4 per gallon level. In part it is due to the squeeze soaring food prices are putting on consumers' pocketbooks. In part it is due to falling house prices, and to a deteriorating job market, with long-term unemployment up 37 percent from last year.
And there is no escape from the gloom. Try to get away from it all, hop in your car, and soon you are pumping $4-plus gasoline into the tank of a vehicle designed more for safety and comfort than for fuel efficiency. Try to get on a plane, and you find that most flights are full, fares are up, and your air miles are virtually useless as the number of seats allocated to freebies shrinks. Which might explain why sales of flat-screen television sets at Wal-Mart increased by double digits in June: Staying home is an increasingly attractive alternative.
But only if you live in a
neighborhood where for-sale signs aren't festooning the lawns. Not only are home sales and house prices down and still declining in most parts of the country, and inventories of unsold houses and mortgage foreclosures up, but the few families willing to buy houses are finding that their once-friendly lender is not delighted to see them. I am told that even pricey Manhattan properties are languishing on the market as Wall Street layoffs mount--driving some from the buyers' queue to the unemployment benefits queue. Indeed, even those bankers still at work find that mortgage lenders are so nervous about the career and bonus prospects of Wall Streeters that financing is not available.
The proud new owners of those flat-screen TVs will have to stay away from the 24-hour financial news channels if they are to find solace in their new acquisition. Share prices are falling, earnings expectations are being lowered, financial-sector firms continue to scramble for new capital to offset write-downs of loans gone sour, and it took government intervention over the weekend to restore calm after shares in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae plunged something like 90 percent.
The softer jobs market affects more than those who have lost their jobs. Even though the unemployment rate (5.5 percent) is nowhere near the levels characteristic of serious recessions, many people who have jobs quite reasonably feel there is reason to worry about their futures. That's why it was unhelpful to the McCain campaign for his top economic advisor, Phil Gramm, to label these folks "whiners". "Worriers" might have been a better choice of words.
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