Big shifts among independent voters toward Democrats caused Republicans to lose the majority in Congress in 2006 and then shed even more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. Some argue these trends presage a permanent GOP congressional minority--or maybe even signal Republicans are on a path toward electoral extinction, the 21st century equivalent of the Whig Party.
These predictions would hold more validity if the current trajectory of voting patterns continued. But some recent evidence suggests independent voters are shifting again, a trend that might help Republicans capitalize in 2010 on the minority party's historical advantages in off-year elections.
Recent history is instructive. Electoral trends among non-aligned voters are by no means constant. Exit polls reveal Republicans won among independents by three points in 1998 (48%-45%) and again in 2000 (49%-46%). Democrats prevailed narrowly in 2002 (46%-45%) and 2004 (49%-46%). But for Republicans, the bottom dropped out in the 2006 cycle when they lost among independents by a whopping 18 points (57%-39%). 2008 was a little better; but losing non-aligned voters by eight points (51%-43%) still meant further political erosion in both the House and Senate.
Some new indications suggest an improving environment for Republicans
among independent voters. The first sign comes from a recent bipartisan poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR). In a surprising result, the survey shows Republicans and Democrats in a virtual tie on the congressional generic ballot question ("Do you plan on voting for a Democrat or Republican in the next congressional election?"). GOP pollster Glen Bolger points out that the two parties tie despite a six-point party ID advantage for the Democrats. "The reason for the tie is simple," Bolger writes on his blog. "Independents are moving toward the GOP." The NPR survey finds Republicans leading on the generic ballot among independents (38%-24%) -- a result one strategist joked "hasn't occurred since the Lincoln Administration." Bolger further notes the Republican position is now preferred among independents on taxes, energy, health care and the deficit.
These national trends are also playing out at the local level. In the still-undecided congressional election in upstate New York (NY-20) to replace former Democratic Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand (who was appointed to the Senate), Republican Jim Tedisco had a surprisingly strong showing among independents. National Journal's Hotline underscored this point and the broader implications: " our polling shows that [independents] are now up for grabs. That bears out what we saw in NY-20, where, according to the last Siena poll, Tedisco actually led among [independents]. When was the last time GOPers were competitive among these voters? It's been a while."
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