Barack Obama's Leading Indicator

Toward the end of George W. Bush's second term, no one wanted to be seen with him on the campaign trail. That hasn't happened yet to Barack Obama, but just nine months into his first term, in bluest Massachusetts which he carried by 26 points, he couldn't fill a room with Democratic donors  .  .  .  though he managed to fill the sidewalk outside with demonstrators.
Inside, the president voiced a sense of impending doom about the reelection prospects of Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick. Addressing the reportedly "nearly half-empty" Westin Copley ballroom, he said, "There really should be no doubt that this guy gets a second term. But let's be honest. This is going to be a tough race."

Or as the Boston Herald, the scrappy conservative tabloid I work for, put it, "Maybe We Can't."

It's unclear whether there were more supporters inside or protesters outside the hotel, but some of Obama's core constituencies showed up to boo him. Gay rights advocates and antiwar zealots, bitterly disappointed with their president, were there, alongside union protesters who had come to denounce Patrick.

It is ironic that Obama and Patrick should find themselves side by side facing horrible truths. Their political careers have been closely entwined. They've both employed campaign adviser David Axelrod and campaign manager David Plouffe, now back with Patrick's 2010 bid after running Patrick's 2006 and Obama's 2008 efforts. "Yes We Can," the famous 2008 Obama campaign slogan, was lifted from Patrick's 2006 "Together We Can," along with key passages of some of Patrick's speeches, prompting a flap over whether this amounted to plagiarism. Even Obama's MTV admonishment to young black men to pull up their pants was an echo of Patrick.

Both men come from Chicago. Obama moved there after college to work in community organizing, then again after law school to work for a law firm, teach, and enter politics. Patrick, a South Side housing project native who got out early on a scholarship to Milton Academy, like Obama attended Harvard Law, then worked as a civil rights attorney in both government and the corporate world.

As promising young lawyers, they crossed paths professionally in 1993, when Patrick, then with the Department of Justice, and Obama, at a private firm, supported ACORN's successful bid to implement in Illinois the "motor voter" law, which allows people to register to vote when they get a driver's license. Later they campaigned for each other and shared pointers, rhetoric, and strategy in late-night phone calls.

Patrick was elected to the "Corner Office" (as they say in Massachusetts, where the governor has no official residence) as a political outsider in 2006. It was a foreshadowing of Obama's own meteoric ascent to the Oval Office. Patrick had no base and, he soon learned, few friends in the State House. And when it comes to the hard business of politics, Obama is discovering he has few friends in Congress. Both bodies have done largely as they pleased, seeing to their own interests. There is nothing unusual about that. Many chief executives experience it. Patrick and Obama, however, lacking significant political experience, have shown that they also largely lack the political skill to either corral or win over legislative bodies controlled by their own party despite hiring well-seasoned top aides.

Then, too, they both seem to have a political tin ear. Patrick came into office on a regal note, replacing the governor's Ford with a Cadillac, redecorating the Corner Office, using the state police helicopter as a personal conveyance, and, worse, appointing Democratic coatholders to high-paying do-nothing jobs while laying off state workers and closing public pools during the hottest two weeks of the year. Obama has made some similar missteps, showing more urgency about Chicago's Olympic bid than the Afghan war, playing a great deal of golf, and mishandling hot-button issues from bailed-out executives' bonuses to a Harvard professor's racially charged disorderly conduct bust.

It is beginning to look as if, not only in their campaigns but also in governance, the Patrick experience pre-sages Obama's, as the new, grass-roots, Internet-savvy politics they espoused has run headlong into the old, dinosaur, media-savvy backroom politics they eschewed.