The Odds: This is a race that Hoffman "shouldn't" win; he's too conservative for his district. But sometimes, the "wrong" candidate does win, if he runs a superior campaign, motivates stronger turnout, or is the beneficiary of unusual circumstances, all of which apply here. I wouldn't call Hoffman the favorite but it's close -- I'd give him a 45 percent chance of winning, Owens a 50 percent chance, and Scozzafava no more than a fleeting, 5 percent chance. Subject to further revision, of course, as I hope we'll get some further polling from Siena or another trustworthy source before the weekend is out.
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