In Massachusetts, gloomy Democrats are using the Creigh Deeds comparison. In November, Democrats eager to distance Obama from the losing campaign accused Creigh Deeds of Virginia of running such a bad gubernatorial campaign that it could only have been a reflection on him, not a referendum on Obama:

The same sort of thinking is emerging in Massachusetts. "This is a Creigh Deeds situation," the Democrat says. "I don't think it says that the Obama agenda is a problem. I think it says, 1) that she's a terrible candidate, 2) that she ran a terrible campaign, 3) that the climate is difficult but she should have been able to overcome it, and 4) that Democrats beware -- you better run good campaigns, or you're going to lose."

With the election still four days away, Democrats are still hoping that "something could happen" to change the dynamics of the race. But until that thing happens, the situation as it exists today explains Barack Obama's decision not to travel to Massachusetts to campaign for Coakley. "If the White House thinks she can win, Obama will be there," the Democrat says. "If they don't think she can win, he won't be there." For national Democrats, the task is now to insulate Obama against any suggestion that a Coakley defeat would be a judgment on the president's agenda and performance in office.

It's still Massachusetts, but could a shot heard 'round the political world forthcoming?

Looking at the numbers in today's Suffolk poll, noted by the Boss, Coakley may have something to fear from Democrats who don't like health-care reform, as the president's overhaul is not going over, even there:

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The poll finds 99 percent of voters are decided, and the break-down of the sample was 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled. Brown is winning men, and only trailing Coakley with women by five percent. That's the same proportion of women voters whom Republican Chris Christie won over in his blue-state gubernatorial win in New Jersey last year.

Next Page