A Republican tracking poll shows—amazingly—a slight uptick for Scott Brown over the weekend. He leads—amazinglyoutside the margin of error in virtually every turnout model. The “rape” charge seems to be backfiring among independent women. While there is some increase in partisan Democratic intensity, Democratic intensity still trails—amazingly—that of independents, who continue to break overwhelmingly for Brown. The internals of the poll all look okay.

Can it happen? Yes, it can.

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