In November, the House passed the health care bill on a 220 to 215 vote. Since that time, Florida's Robert Wexler has retired, and Reps. Bart Stupak, Joseph Cao, and Steve Driehaus have pledged to vote against the bill if it includes the Senate bill's abortion-funding language. So, Pelosi has at best 216 votes right now--and Stupak should be able to bring along about 10 more of those 216 votes due to the abortion issue. So Pelosi might have about 206 votes before we account for those who can't stomach the tax on union health care plans. Are a dozen Democrats who voted against the health care bill in November really going to change their minds and vote for the Senate bill after Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts?

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