Indiana Republican congressman Mike Pence will announce today that he will not challenge Democratic senator Evan Bayh in 2010. "I am staying for two reasons," Pence will write in a letter to supporters, according to Red State's Erick Erickson. "First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010."

Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll showed Pence leading Bayh by 3 points. Pence may have been the strongest GOP candidate for the Indiana Senate race, but Bayh remains very much in danger of losing his seat. He didn't poll above 50% against any of his potential challengers. As Michael Barone writes:

A general rule in polling is that what an incumbent gets in a poll he gets in a general election. Everyone knows him; those not voting for him now are not likely to vote for him later.

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