A Republican has won the congressional district in which Obama grew up:

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) won the special election in Hawaii's 1st district tonight. He took 39.5 percent of the vote to 31 percent for state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and 28 percent for former Rep. Ed Case (D).

Obama carried the district 70% to 28% in 2008. Conventional wisdom holds that Djou will lose this seat in the fall when there won't be two Democratic candidates splitting the Democratic vote. But I wouldn't be so sure that Djou can't boost his share of the vote from 39.5% in a three-way race to 50.1% in a head-to-head match up. It's not clear that Hawaii Dems will easily unify behind one candidate (the primary is September 18). And Djou will have six months as an incumbent to get to know voters better. He's certainly an appealing candidate (see here).

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