Was that poll showing Fiorina in the lead too good to be true?

Today's new Rasmussen poll shows Democratic senator Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina 49% to 42%. Nevertheless it seems like it will be a close race in California. Real Clear Politics moved it from "leans" Democratic to "toss-up" this week; the RCP average of polls shows Boxer ahead by three points.

In other Senate polling news, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied at 43% in a Quinnipiac poll. Toomey leads by two points in the RCP average of polls.

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