Rasmussen’s polling shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum by 9 percentage points (41 to 32 percent) in Illinois, yet likely primary voters in the Prairie State hold almost identically favorable views of each candidate. Romney’s net favorability rating is +38 points (68 percent “favorable” to 30 percent “unfavorable”) and +12 points among those who feel strongly (22 percent “very favorable” to 10 percent “very unfavorable”). Santorum’s net favorability rating is +37 points (67 percent “favorable” to 30 percent “unfavorable”) and +15 points among those who feel strongly (28 percent “very favorable” to 13 percent “very unfavorable”).

In Alabama and Mississippi, the final results ended up looking more like the candidates' net favorability ratings than like their reputed levels of support. It will be interesting to see whether something similar happens in the Land of Lincoln.

Next Page