Over at The Atlantic, Derek Thompson flags this terrifying indicator:

A spike in oil prices preceded 10 of the last 11 recessions since World War II. In March, energy prices passed a dangerous threshold that suggests we could be on the verge of number 12.

When energy spending rises above 6% of total expenditures, economist James Hamilton explains, consumers start to change their behavior significantly. In March, with unemployment near 9 percent and families still reeling from the credit crunch, we hit 6.27%.

There's a lot more data and analysis at the link.

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