The House Budget Committee has released a new paper showing that the budget written by Chairman Paul Ryan could reach balance sooner than projected by the Congressional Budget Office:

  • The rate of economic growth is one of the most important factors affecting the federal budget – and The Pathto Prosperity contains a number of policy changes, such as fundamental tax reform and structural Medicare reforms, with the potential to significantly change the economy’s growth path.
  • Assuming higher growth within a realistic range, the budget could achieve balance in the mid-to-early 2020s, with the upper-bound growth assumption producing budget balance within the ten-year budget window – much sooner than CBO’s estimated balance date of 2039.

Last year, CBO similarly estimated Ryan's budget would reach balance in 2039. House Republicans knew that then and almost unanimously voted for the budget. But this time around, the Club for Growth says Ryan's inability to produce a budget that balances in 10 years, according to CBO, is reason to oppose the budget.

Correction: This item originally stated that the Club for Growth supported the Ryan budget in 2011. In fact, the Club for Growth was silent on the Ryan budget. Republican congressmen Justin Amash of Michigan and Tim Huelskamp of Kansas did support the Ryan budget in 2011 but have voted against it in committee this year.

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