The latest poll from the surprisingly contentious special election in New York's Ninth Congressional District shows Republican Bob Turner with a small lead over Democrat David Weprin. Magellan Strategies, a firm associated with Republican political candidates, surveyed 2,055 likely voters for next week's election. With a margin of error of just over 2 percent, the poll finds that Turner has a four-point lead over Weprin, with 44.6 percent. The poll also finds that President Barack Obama has a dismal approval rating in the district, which has a solid Democratic electoral history but is among the more conservative New York City districts.

Michael Barone notes the significant Orthodox Jewish population in the congressional district and wonders whether Obama's policy toward Israel is influencing the race. Barone also offers this cautionary note should Turner win next Tuesday:

A Republican victory here, therefore, would have limited national significance: there aren’t too many districts with large Orthodox communities. But it would certainly be a counterweight to the Democratic victory in the ordinarily Republican 26th district in Upstate New York earlier this year.

The special election is being held to replace former congressman Anthony Weiner, who left Congress amid scandal.

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