The newly released Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely voters says that if the election were held today, Democrats would enjoy a 9-point advantage over Republicans in voter turnout (35 to 26 percent), and President Obama would beat Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points (49 to 46 percent). The good news for Romney is that, to be able to cut a 9-point disadvantage in voter turnout to just a 3-point deficit in votes, he must be doing awfully well with independents. The bad news for Obama is that it’s very hard to find corroborating evidence of this massive Democratic edge.
Gallup’s most recent party-affiliation polling shows Democrats with a 4-point advantage (32 to 28 percent). Rasmussen Reports’ most recent party-affiliation polling shows Republicans with a 3-point advantage (37 to 34 percent). Exit polling in 2010 showed turnout split evenly between the two parties (36 percent apiece). Exit polling in 2008, at the height of Obamamania, showed the Democrats with a 7-point turnout advantage (39 to 32 percent). Exit polling in 2006, when the Republicans lost the House and Senate, showed the Democrats with a 2-point turnout advantage (38 to 36 percent). Exit polling in 2004 showed turnout split evenly between the two parties (37 percent apiece).
Even the Washington Post/ABC News poll, however, shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters in one area — on who has the “better ideas about the right size and role of the federal government.” This suggests that, over these last three weeks, the more time Romney spends reminding voters of Obamacare, the “stimulus,” and Obama’s unprecedented deficit spending, the more likely the GOP nominee is to win.