The Illinois-based pollster We Ask America reports that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker has a 54-42 lead among likely voters in the recall election, despite a strong debate performance by Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. This figure is identical to its poll taken in late May. Nevertheless, the pollster cautions:

Turnout is king in all elections, and it may be even more important in this one. Wisconsin’s labor movement is keen to get as many of the anti-Walker voters to the polls as possible and have displayed the ability to rally their troops effectively. And Wisconsin regulations allow Election Day voter registration with a minimum of residency documentation–something that has both sides whispering of potential abuse from their opponents.

Too many polls have been conducted showing Walker in the lead (even Barrett’s own poll shows him trailing) to disbelieve the sentiments displayed in the results. But Walker’s continuing problem with the John Doe investigation and a bit of swagger among his supporters could–possibly–keep some of them home. Then again, Barrett’s aggression that he displayed in the final debate may have come too late.

These results stand in contrast to PPP's latest, which I caution against here.

Jay Cost is a staff writer for THE WEEKLY STANDARD and the author of Spoiled Rotten: How the Politics of Patronage Corrupted the Once Noble Democratic Party and Now Threatens the American Republic, available now wherever books are sold.

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