Hardly anything in this world of chaos and surprise is so reliable as that the latest figures on the economy will turn out to be "unexpected. As, for instance, confidence among homebuilders as reported this morning on Bloomberg.

It fell – "unexpectedly," of course – for the third month in a row, to its lowest level since October.

If you go to the track and there is a horse named "Unexpectedly" running in any race, bet him heavy. It's a sure thing.

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