Jun 4, 2012, Vol. 17, No. 36 • By THOMAS DONNELLY
The Cold War is an increasingly distant memory in American military minds, except in the minds of the arms control community, and in particular those who seek the elimination of nuclear weapons. Alas, our president is a member in good standing of this community—indeed, an organizer.
AP Evan Vucci
So, too, it appears, is Obama’s “favorite general,” James “Hoss” Cartwright, a Marine who recently retired as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He led a panel for the no-nuke Global Zero advocacy group that has recommended a radical reduction in, and restructuring of, our already-shrunken and aging U.S. nuclear deterrent. Other panel members included many establishment “formers”: Republican senator Chuck Hagel, arms control negotiator Richard Burt, ambassador Thomas Pickering, and NATO commander General Jack Sheehan. In other words, Cartwright was the young, fresh-faced former.
Naturally, the panel produced a report, and just as naturally, the report’s recommendations pointed toward “an urgent and transformational change in U.S. nuclear force structure, strategy, and posture.” That means cutting warhead levels to about 900 (already headed down to about 1,500 under Obama’s “New START” pact from the Cold War peak of 25,000), eliminating land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, and cutting the Trident submarine fleet by a third. The bomber fleet would consist of 18 B-2s (the stealth bomber that’s celebrating its 15th anniversary of active service); no word about a successor airplane. This represents a pretty good approximation of where the Obama administration would like to go in its second term.
But whereas every forward-thinking strategist—not only in the United States but around the globe—is trying to puzzle out the emerging great-power balance of the 21st century, Cartwright and his posse are still locked in the bottle with the Soviet scorpion. The principal justification for the reductions they recommend is that current arsenals exceed what is needed to assure the minimum of deterrence between Moscow and Washington. Further, the “existing threats to our two countries cannot be resolved using nuclear arsenals.” Since the Hoss panel doesn’t have much time for other great-power developments, its members see the rest of the problem as limited to “threats posed by rogue states, failed states, proliferation, regional conflicts, terrorism, cyber warfare, organized crime, drug trafficking, conflict-driven mass migration of refugees, epidemics, or climate change.” I can’t believe they didn’t mention the national security implications of obesity and bullying, but you get the idea: They’re hip to the “new security” agenda, “as underscored by last year’s survey of several hundred experts by the Council on Foreign Relations.”
Apparently, none of the experts surveyed works in the national security bureaucracies of the nations who are building more and more modern nukes. These are, notably, China, India, Pakistan (which might soon have the world’s third-largest nuclear force), and the Rogue Regimes—Iran, in particular—which have learned the lesson of North Korea: Even a handful of nukes deranges the Americans and their allies; the missile doesn’t even have to work. In sum, we are on the cusp of a much more “multipolar” and “balanced” global nuclear equation, but therefore one that is more complex and inherently less stable; if nothing else, the opportunities for miscalculation are much multiplied.
The reductions proposed by the Hoss panel report (primarily written, no doubt, by Bruce Blair, the driving force behind Global Zero) would exacerbate these structural and other dangers. That’s certainly true if the numbers of warheads go down, but it will also be true if the diversity of the nuclear force—the traditional triad of ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers—is diminished, and if the already-at-risk efforts to modernize America’s deterrent come to a complete stop.
Indeed, the force posture that the study proposes—900 total warheads and 450 “deployed,” carried by 10 Trident boats and a minuscule B-2 fleet—is an extremely tempting target for a preemptive strike much smaller than a Soviet-style barrage. The B-2s all live at Whiteman Air Force Base. If the Navy had just ten Tridents, as the study acknowledges, two of those would be in long-term overhaul at any time. Of the eight left, traditional Navy “at-sea” measures call for 70 percent of the fleet to be ready to rapidly deploy (“at-sea” does not mean actually at sea). A more realistic assessment of the number of submarines actually on patrol might be as low as two, one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. In other words, much of the fleet would be in port, an obvious and soft target. Nor do subs that are on patrol carry a full magazine of nukes.